Implications of Demographic Change for the Sensitivity of Cities to Climate Change

• Applicants: Professor Dr.-Ing. Stefan Greiving; Professor Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann
• Subject Area: Urbanism, Spatial Planning, Transportation and Infrastructure Planning, Landscape Planning
• Term: from 2014 to 2022
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 261931245

Scientific discourses on demographic change, climate change and adaptive planning have developed on separate tracks. So far, existing cross-references seem to be largely ignored. Considering the evident connections the missing linkage raises questions and illustrates the need for basic research in spatial sciences.The project focuses on the analysis of the implications of demographic change on the sensitivity of cities to the effects of climate change. What influence do specific urban climate and urban structural factors have on the impacts of climate change? How does the demographic change alter the relevance of sensitivity in comparison to the relevance of the climate signal over time and related to different city types? What challenges does this pose for adaptive planning for different city types?To answer these questions we develop an integrated method to assess the implications of the two megatrends climate change and demographic change that serves as evidence base for adaptation strategies of spatial planning under conditions of uncertainty. It aims to overcome the methodological weaknesses of existing approaches that assume that the structure and the sensitivity of society remains the same whilst the climate is changing. We aim to demonstrate that dynamic demographic data can improve the knowledge of the sensitivity of cities to the effects of climate change and adaptive planning.The methodology is applied in six case cities that cover a broad range on projected changes with regard to climate and demography. Analyses are indicator and GIS based and supplemented by interviews and workshops. Based on the outcomes of the analyses in the cases a cross-cutting analysis follows to answer the initial questions.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants