Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe (STAMMEX)
Final Report Abstract
The STAMMEX (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe) project was focused on the estimation and analysis of long-term variability of extreme precipitation over Central Europe during the past century from high quality observations and identification of the major mechanisms of the observed changes in order to assess regional predictability of extreme precipitation over Central Europe. During the project term we compiled the synthesis of the estimates of precipitation extremes including separate estimation of the absolute extremes and relative extremeness using newly developed distribution of the fractional contribution. It has been shown that climate variability of both absolute extremes and relative extremeness exhibits significant seasonality in Central Europe, showing upward changes during the last several decades in winter and primarily downward tendency in summer. Structural analysis of precipitation in Europe allowed for quantification of the tendencies in the duration of wet and dry periods. For this purpose we developed a numerical methodology based on truncated geometric distribution and also established fractional truncated geometric distribution quantifying relative contribution of the wet and dry periods to the number of wet days. It has been shown that the duration of both wet and dry spells increased over the last decades by 2 to 5% with the most pronounced signals being highly localized. Using DWD rain gauge collection (about 6000 stations for the period from 1930 onwards) we designed multiresolution climatology of daily precipitation (from 0.1 to 0.5 degree) for the needs of operational agencies and climate researchers. For this purpose we developed a set of numerical procedures for the optimal interpolation and special procedures of homogenization of sampling. Homogenized daily grids were then used for the analysis of climate variability and trends in extreme precipitation statistics justified in the first part of the project. Evaluation of high resolution data sets against conventional E-Obs grids demonstrated the importance of the use of dense networks for capturing regional patterns of variability which could not be earlier revealed by coarser resolution grids. Obtained data products were used for the analysis of climate variability during the last decades and its association with cyclone activity. Execution of STAMMEX project allowed to involve in the analysis of extreme precipitation in Central Europe two young researchers and to establish a number of effective co-operations with scientists from academia (IORAS, Moscow; University Reno, Nevada), metoffices (NCDC/NOAA, DWD, KNMI) and international programmes (GEWEX/WCRP). Project data are made freely available at the web and on recognized computer media.
Publications
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2010: Changing structure of European precipitation: longer wet periods leading to more abundant rainfalls. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06704
Zolina, O., C. Simmer, S. K. Gulev and S. Kollet
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2010: Improving the accuracy of estimation of climate extremes. EOS Transactions, 91, 51, 506
Zolina, O., V. Detemmerman and K. E. Trenberth
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2011: Changes in synoptic structure of European precipitation and its impact on estimation of heavy rainfalls from daily rain gauges records. Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences, 5, 436, 690-695
Zolina, O.
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2012: Changes in European Extreme Precipitation. In book: “Changes of Flood Risk in Europe”, edited by Zbyszek Kundzewicz, IAHS Press (Wallingford, UK), ISBN 978-1-907161-28-5, 97-120
Zolina, O.
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2012: Changes in the duration of European wet and dry spells during the last 60 years. Journal of Climate, 25
Zolina, O., C. Simmer, S. K. K. Belyaev, S. K. Gulev and P. Koltermann
