Using biogeographical niche models to predict plant species responses to climate change in interaction with land use
Final Report Abstract
In current climate change research, many predictions of species’ future range shifts rely on the assumption that the recent distribution patterns of most species are reflecting the species' fundamental ecological requirements. The basic research idea of this project was to test whether plant species of different geographic distribution types responded predictably and differently to global change impacts such as changes in climate and land use. Furthermore, we aimed at testing whether the local establishment and performance of species can be predicted from species’ fundamental and realized niche characteristics. In particular, we focused on the impact of the interactions of climate, land use and biotic interactions such as competition and herbivory with the species’ range type characteristics on plant responses. Fundamental niche properties of 16 congeneric species of 8 different genera were obtained from frost hardiness experiments and greenhouse drought experiments. Realized niches were extracted from species distribution data. At the regional scale, we carried out field experiments with the same plant species in the Exploratory grassland and forest plots and along a climatic gradient in Botanical Gardens across Germany. By manipulating competition and herbivory via exclosure methods we quantified survival and growth performance of the transplanted phytometers. The monitoring showed that the local plant species' growth performance was not in accordance with range type characteristics. The similarity of the regional climate type to the overall climate in the geographical distribution range turned out to be not important. In contrast, the different agricultural management types had strong effects on plant performances, with continentally distributed species performing better in pastures and oceanic ones in meadows. Additionally, species of different range types showed differences in their sensitivity to competition and herbivory. These results indicate that large-scale macroecologically derived correlations might not be valid at smaller spatial scales. More generally, our results suggest that the fundamental niche of a plant species to a large degree might be evolutionarily conserved above the species level. This would imply that allopatric distributions are not necessarily accompanied by physiological adaptations to the climatic conditions prevailing in the respective geographical region, but are based on phylogeographic history. An important implication of our results is that the generally assumed relationship between fundamental and realised niche does not hold and that species distribution models that exclusively rely on climate envelopes might be unrealistic. This limited transferability has important implications for the future research on range dynamics in changing climates.
Publications
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(2009) Frost hardiness and drought tolerance as range limiting factors of oceanic and continental grassland species. - Verhandlungen der Gesellschaft für Ökologie 39
Auerswald, M., Bütof, A. & Bruelheide, H.
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(2009) The change in biotic interactions along a continentality gradient in Germany - a common garden experiment involving congeneric plant species with contrasting range types, herbivores and competition - Verhandlungen der Gesellschaft für Ökologie 39
Bütof, A. & Bruelheide, H.
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(2010) Plant performance under simulated climate change strongly depends on land use type, study region and species identity - Verhandlungen der Gesellschaft für Ökologie 40
Bütof, A., von Riedmatten, L. R., Dormann, C. F., Scherer-Lorenzen, M., Welk, E. & Bruelheide, H.
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(2012) The responses of grassland plants to simulated climate change depend on land use and region. - Global Change Biology 18: 127-137.3
Bütof, A., von Riedmatten, L. R., Dormann, C. F., Scherer-Lorenzen, M., Welk, E. & Bruelheide, H.
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(2013) Relationship between fundamental and realized niches in terms of frost and drought resistance. - Preslia 85: 1-17
Hofmann, M., Bütof, A., Welk, E. & Bruelheide, H.
