Integrated modelling of land-use changes at rainforest margins in Indonesia

• Antragstellerinnen / Antragsteller: Professor Dr. Jann Lay; Professorin Dr. Kerstin Wiegand
• Fachliche Zuordnung: Ökologie und Biodiversität der Pflanzen und Ökosysteme
• Förderung: Förderung von 2010 bis 2015
• Projektkennung: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Projektnummer 175295803

The proposed project will develop and analyze integrated models of land-use change at rainforest margins in Indonesia. The gradient of land-use types from natural and logged forest to agroforestry will be modelled with emphasis on tree shade removal. A grid-based ecological model will be complemented by a socio-economic, agent-based model component that simulates the dynamics of individual households. The project will investigate biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and household income to determine whether there is a critical level of forest-use intensity beyond which they are very negatively affected. The intergrated models will be used to examine the economic and ecological effects of land-use intensification conditional on planning horizon. We will investigate whether it is possible to manage the trade-offs that arise from population pressure and the need to stabilize the forest margin. We will apply these insights on trade-off management to evaluate the ecological and socio-economic consequences of current and alternative zonations of the Lore Lindu Biosphere Reserve. We will also investigate how pro-active household strategies for dealing with the effects of ENSO droughts may improve household income. Overall, the model analyses will improve our understanding of the ecological and socio-economic trade-offs at the rainforest margin under land-use change.

• DFG-Verfahren: Sachbeihilfen
• Beteiligte Person: Dr. Katrin Meyer