Project Details
Projekt
ProteaChange - Analysis and near-term forecasts of the dynamics of plant communities and plant-animal networks in the South African Fynbos biome
Subject Area
Ecology and Biodiversity of Plants and Ecosystems
Ecology and Biodiversity of Animals and Ecosystems, Organismic Interactions
Ecology and Biodiversity of Animals and Ecosystems, Organismic Interactions
Term
since 2011
Project identifier
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 186230034
Advanced understanding of the dynamics of plant communities and plant-animal networks requires the integration of process-based models with community, interaction and trait data. This model-data integration is also crucial for forecasting the dynamics of communities and interaction networks under scenarios of global change. The need for such forecasts is particularly high in global biodiversity hotspots exposed to drastic environmental change, such as the South African Fynbos biome. In fire-driven Protea shrub communities characteristic of this biome, two previous projects combined multi-species experiments, large-scale observations, and trait-based modelling to generate novel insights into determinants of plant life-histories, plant-plant and plant-animal interactions. These studies resulted in a quantitative understanding of the processes that change the structure of plant communities and plant-animal networks within the lifetime of individual plants. Building on the knowledge and data generated in these previous projects, ProteaChange will investigate the dynamics of plant communities and plant-animal networks across multiple plant generations and fire events. This will involve three steps. First, we will make use of the fact that 14 study communities burnt in stand-replacing fires. We will remap these communities using UAV imagery and artificial intelligence. By integrating individual-level maps before and after fire with extensive knowledge about different components of the recruitment process, we will analyse which mechanisms causes changes in Protea community structure from one generation to the next. Secondly, we will integrate extensive data on within- and between-generation drivers of community change with a process-based model of plant community dynamics that will be validated against independent large-scale datasets. This plant community model will then be used both to analyse determinants of plant species coexistence and to make probabilistic near-term forecasts of the dynamics of Protea communities under climate change and associated changes in fire frequency. Thirdly, we will resurvey interactions between plants and animal mutualists and antagonists in the burnt communities to develop a data-driven, trait-based model of the dynamics of plant-animal networks. This model will be linked to the plant community model to develop near-term forecasts of networks between Protea plants and their animal mutualists and antagonists. The project as a whole will thus address fundamental questions on plant species coexistence and the assembly of plant-animal networks in a biodiversity hotspot, and it will develop novel ecological forecasting approaches to answer pressing questions on the response of biodiversity to global change.
DFG Programme
Research Grants
International Connection
South Africa
