The Impact of Electoral Vulnerability on Policy Recalibration: Pensions, Agricultural and Citizenship Reforms
Final Report Abstract
Electoral pressure is often discussed as a motive for political action. Yet without being able to measure the intensity of electoral competition we cannot meaningful draw any conclusions about the impact of electoral pressure on the behavior of politicians. In this project we developed a concept and measure of electoral pressure. We measure both the probability that voters will switch their votes from one party to another and the consequences for these switches on the parliamentary power of this party. We demonstrate that electoral competition can explain the policy positions of parties, whether governments chose to make their agricultural policies more environmentally sustainable and more globally solidaristic by reducing their subsidies to farmers, whether governments recalibrate social policies by reducing social consumption in the form of earnings related pensions in favor of social investment policies, such as child care and active labor market policies, and whether they are willing to lower the barriers to citizenship for the foreign-born. Our measure of electoral competition can be used in almost any analysis of political action that depends upon the responsiveness of elected leaders to voters and public opinion.
Publications
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(2014). How electoral vulnerability affects pension politics: Introducing a concept, measure and empirical application. European Journal of Political Research, 53(2): 269-287
Immergut, E M and Abou-Chadi, T
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(2015). Political Institutions and the Distributional Consequences of Suffrage Extension. Political Studies, 63(S1):55-72
Abou-Chadi, T and Orlowski, M
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(2016). Moderate as Necessary. The Role of Electoral Competitiveness and Party Size in Explaining Parties’ Policy Shifts. The Journal of Politics, 78(3):868-881
Abou-Chadi, T and Orlowski, M
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(2016). Niche Party Success and Mainstream Party Policy Shifts – How Green and Radical Right Parties Differ in Their Impact. British Journal of Political Science, 46(2):417-436
Abou-Chadi, T
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(2016). Political and Institutional Determinants of Immigration Policies. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 42(13):2087-2110
Abou-Chadi, T
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(2017). It's not easy being green: Why voters punish parties for environmental policies during economic downturns. Electoral Studies, 45 (February): 201-207
Abou-Chadi, T and Kayser, Mark A
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(2018) The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties’ Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach, British Journal of Political Science
Abou-Chadi, T & Krause, W
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(2018). Electoral Competition, political risks, and parties’ responsiveness to voters’ issue priorities, Electoral Studies, 55 (October) 99-108
Abou-Chadi, T
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(2018). Recalibrating Social Protection: Electoral Competition and the New Partisan Politics of the Welfare State. European Journal of Political Research
Abou-Chadi T & Immergut E M
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(2018). Rights for Same-Sex Couples and Public Attitudes toward Gays and Lesbians in Europe Comparative Political Studies
Abou-Chadi, T & Finnigan, R
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(2018). The Electoral Appeal of Party Strategies in Post-Industrial Societies: When Can the Mainstream Left Succeed? Journal of Politics
Abou-Chadi, T & Wagner, M
