Svalbard Ice-Mass Evolution in past and future - Climate forcing and Teleconnections (SvIMEv-CT): 4th year
Final Report Abstract
This DFG-funded work has shown that the glaciers on the European Arctic archipelago Svalbard experience considerable spatial variability regarding their states of mass balance over recent years. This spatial variability is also reflected by different surface albedo pattern and it follows a century of strongly different mass balance evolutions across the different subregions of the archipelago. Future projections indicate a continuation of the spatial variability, which will finally lead to different timings of glacier loss in the oncoming centuries. More positive balances occur in the northeastern and more high-lying subregions, while the southwestern subregions experience predominantly negative balances. The project generated the first Svalbard-wide mass balance information for the first half of the 20th century and resulted in the creation of datasets that provide extensive possibilities for future applications in glaciological research on Svalbard. The outcome of the study clearly proved that it was wise to refrain from starting to model mass losses from the tidewater glaciers on Svalbard with only modeled bedrock topographies available. Nevertheless, as the new Svalbard wide bedrock map of Fürst et al. (2018) has recently become available, future glacier evolution modeling for all glaciers of Svalbard, i.e. land-and marineterminating ones, is now finally under way. Data from the automatic weather station operated on Elfenbeinbreen serve as validation data for the statistically downscaled air temperatures in this study. Validation data for the surface topography-change and glacier retreat model were also generated as part of the SvIMEv-CT project. In a B.Sc. thesis the retreat of Elfenbeinbreen and Sveigbreen over recent decades was analyzed on the basis of Landsat satellite remote sensing data. Retreat states representing years from 2006 onwards will be used during validation of modeled glacier retreats. Results from the dynamical modeling study at Vestfonna also serve for validation of modeled glacier thinning and retreat. Hence, while major parts of development and coding of the calving-model and its coupling to the surface topography-change model fell into the final phase of the SvIMEv-CT project, the final application of the model to entire Svalbard, as it had been suggested in the original proposal, transformed into a follow-on activity. Apart from the modeling-related activities, the project was able to provide initial evidence that ocean surface-conditions throughout the European Arctic (and potentially also beyond) significantly influence both ablation and accumulation on Svalbard and that this influence shows substantial spatial variability across the archipelago. However, the complexity of the interactions with atmospheric circulation limits any straightforward interpretation, but opens up the possibility for future research in the area of climate and ocean-forcing of glacier mass balance. Especially in the light of a more and more ice-free Arctic during the oncoming decades this research topic will gain substantial importance. It is hoped that such kind of research will provide a better understanding of the modes and paths of action between climate change in the Arctic and the evolution of the glaciers in this highly vulnerable area.
Publications
- (2015): Dynamic modelling of future glacier changes: mass-balance/elevation feedback in future projections of Vestfonna ice cap, Nordaustlandet, Svalbard. Journal of Glaciology, 61(230), 1121-1136
Schäfer, M., M. Möller, T. Zwinger & J.C. Moore
(See online at https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J184) - (2015): Ice thickness distribution and hydrothermal structure of Elfenbeinbreen and Sveigbreen, Eastern Spitsbergen, Svalbard. Journal of Glaciology, 61(229), 1015-1018
Navarro, F., R. Möller, E. Vasilenko, A. Martín-Español, R. Finkelnburg & M. Möller
(See online at https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG15J141) - (2015): Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard). Scientific Reports, 5, 8079
Möller, M. & C. Schneider
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1038/srep08079) - (2016): Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 121(10), 5411-5429
Möller, M., F. Obleitner, C.H. Reijmer, V.A. Pohjola, P. Głowacki & J. Kohler
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024380) - (2016): Monte Carlo modelling projects the loss of most land-terminating glaciers on Svalbard in the 21st century under RCP 8.5 forcing. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 094006
Möller, M., F. Navarro & A. Martín-Español
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094006) - (2017): Modeling glacier-surface albedo across Svalbard for the 1979-2015 period: The HiRSvaC500-α data set. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9
Möller, M. & R. Möller
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000752) - (2018): Differing climatic mass balance evolution across Svalbard glacier regions over 1900-2010. Frontiers in Earth Science, 6, 128
Möller, M. & J. Kohler
(See online at https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00128)
