Charting the Unknown: Assessing and Communicating Uncertainties for Decision-Support in Landscape Planning

• Applicant: Professorin Dr. Christina von Haaren
• Subject Area: City Planning, Spatial Planning, Transportation and Infrastructure Planning, Landscape Planning ; Ecology of Land Use
• Term: from 2013 to 2018
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 250763334

Uncertainties inherent in projections about landscape change have recently increased due to new or more volatile drivers of an accelerated land use change. In consequence weaknesses in identifying uncertainties and appropriately communicating them to decision-makers are more acutely perceived. Blunders in uncertainty communication may result in mistrust and knowledge exclusion from decision making. Such problems are inter alia a result of a deficient theoretical, methodological and empirical basis concerning the handling of uncertainties in landscape planning.The objective of this research proposal is to enhance scientific understanding about approaches that deal appropriately with uncertainties in landscape planning. This includes: (i) to develop and test a framework for uncertainty assessment, (ii) to deduct basic principles for uncertainty management in landscape planning. Key research questions are: How can the uncertainties be assessed methodologically? Which methods are most suitable for producing results relevant for landscape planning related decision making? How uncertain are the results of landscape planning? The research will be conducted by applying different approaches to investigate and express uncertainties in plans, including statistical analysis; the results of the uncertainty analysis will be compared to selected modelling results in a case study. The research will provide new insights into the uncertainty of landscape plans and methods for appropriately assessing uncertainties in landscape and spatial planning.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants