Non-Empirical Theory Confirmation

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Richard Dawid
• Subject Area: Theoretical Philosophy
• Term: from 2014 to 2016
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 270441646

The project aims at developing a general understanding of the role of non-empirical theory confirmation in science. Non-empirical theory confirmation is based on observations which are not predictable by the theory to be confirmed but nevertheless increase the probability of the theory s viability. The project builds on previous work that has developed the concept of non-empirical theory confirmation, integrated it in a Bayesian framework and established its special importance in the context of string theory. The submitted project will develop the approach further on a general philosophical basis and test its relevance in a number of case studies. The general conceptual analysis will be carried out at various levels. First, the Bayesian formalization of the main types of non-empirical theory confirmation, which has already been started in preparatory work, shall be continued and brought to a conclusion. Second, the relation between non-empirical theory confirmation and inference to the best explanation shall be analysed. Finally, the relevance of the approach for the scientific realism debate shall be discussed. Five case studies will analyse the role of non-empirical theory confirmation in various contexts. Those case studies will address the atomism debate at the turn of the 20th century, the search for the Higgs particle, the situation in contemporary cosmology with a special emphasis on cosmic inflation, a comparison between string theory and loop quantum gravity, and, in order to extend the analysis beyond the realm of physics, the relation between robustness and confirmation in applied sciences. The general architecture of the project is designed to test the hypothesis that non-empirical theory confirmation plays a so far underappreciated role in science. Taking that role into account can arguably provide a more complete understanding of the scientific process in a wide range of special cases. Moreover, it can contribute to a more coherent overall understanding of scientific confirmation and can throw new light on a number of questions in the general philosophy of science.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants