An integrated approach for the conservation of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris) under climate change: linking remote sensing, species distribution modelling and population models
Final Report Abstract
This project improved our understanding of impacts of global change on the distributions of species in regions that governed by seasonal monsoon climates and suffer from high human pressure, based on species distribution modelling studies on two keystone species, the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris) at a regional scale covering India and Nepal in South Asia. An ensemble of several species distribution modelling techniques and subsequent connectivity analysis for elephants revealed that elephant distribution is driven predominantly by changes in climatic water balance (>60%), followed by changes in temperature and human‐induced disturbance. The results suggest that around 41.8% of the 256,518 km2 of habitat available at present will be lost by the end of this century due to combined effects of climate change and land use change. It also suggests that the projected habitat loss will be higher in human‐dominated sites at lower elevations due to intensifying droughts and human pressure. This would lead the elephants to seek refuge at higher elevations along valleys with greater water availability in the Himalayan Mountains. The habitat connectivity analysis suggests that the fragmented core areas that are located along the foothill forests and floodplains of the Himalaya in the northern part of India and Nepal could be connected by a mixture of poor‐ and high‐quality habitat that should form specific targets for management. Analysis for tiger showed that around 212,146 km2 of habitat is available for tiger and is determined predominantly by land use, followed by precipitation-related climatic conditions and vegetation. The strong climate mitigation advocated by low emissions scenario represents the best case for future distribution of tigers as 65% of their total available habitat will be lost under increased emissions, forcing tigers toward high altitudes in the Himalayan Mountains. Model predicted that around 76.9% of the areas in tiger reserves in India and in protected areas in lowland Nepal would be suitable, and the central region contains the highest amount of suitable habitat within the tiger reserves (15,435 km2), followed by northern, southern and northeast regions. Nearly half of the protected areas are projected to become unsuitable by 2070 under RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. To strengthen biodiversity conservation prioritization, multispecies high priority conservation hotspots were identified by combing the results of elephant and tiger with geographic patterns predicted for mammals and amphibians richness under global change. To conclude, this study provides a first assessment on the effect of global change on the distributions of the Asian elephant and tiger in their major habitats in India and Nepal, which could help other assessments over their entire range across South and South‐East Asia, and be useful for developing management plans for wildlife conservation under the aegis of global change. It reveals that changes in climatic water balance could play a crucial role in driving species distributions in regions with monsoonal climates. In addition, changes in land use patterns and water availability will have a joint effect on the distribution of species in face of global change. It also opens an important question of how global change impact on the distributions of two species across their entire distributional range in South and South‐East Asia.
Publications
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2018. Modelling the combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic impact on the future distribution of the Asian Elephant (Elephas maximus) in South Asia. Accepted for oral presentation in Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation (ATBC) meeting, July 1- 5, 2018, Kuching, Malaysia
Rajapandian Kanagaraj, Miguel B. Araujo, Rathin Barman, Priya Davidar, Rahul De, Dinesh K. Digal, G. V. Gopi, A. J. T. Johnsingh, Kashmira Kakati, Stephanie Kramer‐Schadt, Babu R. Lamichhane, Salvador Lyngdoh, M. D. Madhusudan, Muneer Ul Islam Najar, Jyotirmayee Parida, Narendra M. B. Pradhan, Jean‐Philippe Puyravaud, R. Raghunath, P. P. Abdul Rahim, K. Muthamizh Selvan, Naresh Subedi, Antonio Trabucco, Swati Udayraj, Thorsten Wiegand, Amirtharaj C. Williams, Surendra P. Goyal
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2019. Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change. Diversity and Distributions, 25: 822–838
Rajapandian Kanagaraj, Miguel B. Araujo, Rathin Barman, Priya Davidar, Rahul De, Dinesh K. Digal, G. V. Gopi, A. J. T. Johnsingh, Kashmira Kakati, Stephanie Kramer‐Schadt, Babu R. Lamichhane, Salvador Lyngdoh, M. D. Madhusudan, Muneer Ul Islam Najar, Jyotirmayee Parida, Narendra M. B. Pradhan, Jean‐Philippe Puyravaud, R. Raghunath, P. P. Abdul Rahim, K. Muthamizh Selvan, Naresh Subedi, Antonio Trabucco, Swati Udayraj, Thorsten Wiegand, Amirtharaj C. Williams, Surendra P. Goyal
