Plant population dynamics (central-marginal concept) modelling species' environmental envelopes, and prediction of species' response to global change

• Applicant: Dr. Marion Pfeifer
• Subject Area: Plant Biochemistry and Biophysics
• Term: from 2006 to 2010
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 29017408

Global climate change may alter the distribution of species and communities, and consequently biodiversity with implications for nature conservation, agro-forestry, and environmental planning. Yet, factors other than climate may play an important role in determining the distribution of species over time. Their relative impact on the populations may vary. Firstly, this project attempts to compare structure and dynamics of populations of one perennial orchid throughout the entire species range to quantify the relative influence of environmental parameters (e.g. type of management, land-use, local weather extremes) on population performance indices (e.g. size structure, reproductive success). The comparative demographic analysis will be accompanied by a comparative genetic analysis to test several hypotheses proposed within the Central-Marginal concept. Secondly, I will apply state-of-theart habitat modelling techniques based on a multi-layered GIS geodatabase to identify most relevant factors limiting the species range. Thirdly, climate change and land-use will be incorporated into the habitat modelling to predict the species future distribution under environmental change. Habitat requirements, climatic limitations, and species traits will be integrated in the modelling progress. The combination of modelling with detailed fieldmeasurements can overcome common difficulties in the research on population performance regulation, and on the impact of climate change relative to other environmental variables.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants