Ecological Calendars and Climate Adaptation in the Pamirs
Final Report Abstract
The overall aim of the project was to generate knowledge about climate and environmental change in a transdisciplinary setting in the Pamirs of Central Asia. The co-generation of knowledge by academics and non-academics is used to adapt ecological calendars as a tool for climate change adaptation. Ecological calendars have been described mainly in the western Pamirs in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, but we found evidence of remains in Kyrgyzstan and Xinjiang (China) as well. They became out of use to a large extend or have been suppressed during colonial times. Unfortunately, we could not work in all four countries for political and safety reasons. After an explorative trip to Xinjiang with the Chinese project partners, lead by Prof. Dr. J. Xu (Kunming Institute of Botany), in 2016 we hoped to at least exchange data, but the Chinese project partners dropped out of the project almost completely. Consequently, the focus of the remaining project partners from the USA (lead PI, Prof. Dr. K.-A. Kassam, Cornell University), Italy (PIs, Dr. A. Trabucco, Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change and PI Dr. S. Mereu, Institute for BioEconomy), and from Germany (PI, Prof. Dr. C. Samimi, University of Bayreuth) was on two regions Sary Mogol (Kyrgyzstan) and Savnob/Roshorv (Tajikistan). Sary Mogol is situated at an altitude of 3000 masl, Savnob at 2700 masl and Roshorv 3100 masl. The land use in all three villages is a combination of irrigated crops, mainly barley, potatoes and fodder plants, and mobile livestock keeping. In Savnob trees like poplar and apricots have been growing which is now also possible in Roshorv to a certain extend. The methods to achieve the aims are transdisciplinary and consist of own measurements of climate parameters in the two project regions, station data from state services, gridded data, interview data, workshops with the communities were perceptions of the environment and climate were discussed, and the ethnographic methos of seasonal rounds, where livelihood activities but also e.g., feasts are assigned to seasons. The transdisciplinarity is ensured by an iterative process over three years where fused results from the measurements and the community perceptions were discussed and adjusted together with the communities of Savnob and Roshorv. The results of the data fusion shows a much better understanding on a local scale which can not be provided by gridded data even if they are downscaled. They spatial and also temporal resolution is not enough. The general increase of temperature especially since the late 1990s, winter showing the smallest increase and still strong negative anomalies occur. On a local scale the trends are not that robust in the data but the warming trends are confirmed by the communities, except for summer where the people report a cooling in Roshorv. Precipitation does not show a significant trend but huge interannual variation especially in spring on a regional scale. The local population which reports a decrease of precipitation but confirms the strong variability especially in spring, with late snow events. The strong variability affecting the agricultural activities, both cropping and herding. Late frost causes damage, a late start of the growth period could affect the ripening of crops. Late snow delays either the movement of animals to the summer pastures or is impacting livestock on the pastures. The reported positive effects in a high mountain environment, e.g., the possibility to plant fruit trees on higher elevations is overlaid by the negative effects caused by larger variabilities which make planning of activities more difficult. With the new insights into the climate situation it was possible to calibrate the ecological calendars for Roshorv and Savnob. Signs in nature were newly assigned to times in the year and the distinct differences between the two villages confirm that very local scales are relevant in climate change adaptation. The new ecological calendars are now providing a tool for a better planning of livelihood activities which leads to an improvement of food security.
Publications
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(2018): Anticipating Climatic Variability: The Potential of Ecological Calendars. Human Ecology 46 (2), 249-257
Kassam, K-A..; Ruelle, M.; Samimi, C.; Trabucco, A.; Xu, J.
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(2019): Central Asia’s Changing Climate: How Temperature and Precipitation Have Changed across Time, Space, and Altitude. Climate 7(10)
Haag, I.; Jones, P.D.; Samimi, C.
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(2019): Ökologische Kalender im Pamir: Anpassung an den Klimawandel auf dem Dach der Welt. Geographische Rundschau 71(12), 26-31
Haag, I.; Kassam, K.-A.; Samimi, C.
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(2021): Climate trend detection in a data-scarce environment: a transdisciplinary study in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan. Dissertation Universität Bayreuth, Bayreuther Graduiertenschule für Mathematik und Naturwissenschaften – BayNAT
Haag, I.
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(2021): Engaging Transformation: Using Seasonal Rounds to Anticipate Climate Change. Human Ecology 49 (5), 509-523
Kassam, K.-A.; Ruelle, M.; Haag, I.; Bulbulshoev, U.; Kaziev, D.; Louis, L.; Ullmann, A.; Edwards, I.; Khan, A.A.; Trabucco, A.; Samimi, C.
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(2021): Measurements meet human observations: integrating distinctive ways of knowing in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan to assess local climate change. Climatic Change 165 (1/2)
Haag, I.; Kassam, K.-A.; Senftl, T.; Zandler, H.; Samimi, C.
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(2021): Time Series Analysis of Land Cover Change in Dry Mountains: Insights from the Tajik Pamirs. Remote Sensing volume 13(19)
Vanselow, K.A.; Zandler, H.; Samimi, C.
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(2022): Ecological Calendars of the Pamir Mountains: Illustrating the Importance of Context‐Specificity for Food Security. GeoHealth 6(12)
Ullmann, A.L.; Haag, I.; Bulbulshoev, U.
