Predicting redistribution of a key species in an ocean warming hotspot

• Applicant: Dr. Michael Oellermann
• Subject Area: Ecology and Biodiversity of Animals and Ecosystems, Organismic Interactions ; Oceanography
• Term: from 2016 to 2020
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 326692763

• Final Report Year: 2022

Final Report Abstract

Redistribution of species triggered by anthropogenic warming is a global concern. Marine species shifting their range not only disturb ecosystems but can also pose serious threats to local food supplies and industries. Unfortunately, effective adaptation responses by conservation and fisheries managers lack sufficient information about the combined responses of species to future warming and novel species interaction arising from distribution shifts. This study addressed this by investigating how physiology, behaviour and novel species interactions mutually drive species redistribution in an Australian warming hotspot, using a large benthic predator - the eastern rock lobster - as model. The findings of this project showed that physiological, behavioural, and ecological factors act in concert to determine the climate-driven range expansion of the eastern rock lobster (Sagmariasus verreauxi). Physiological limitation cascading from cellularto overall animal metabolism set fundamental limits to S. verreauxi distribution. However, energy metabolism could also adjust dynamically and posed no clear distribution barrier for mature lobsters to current and future thermal conditions in South-East Australia. Instead, biotic resistance by the resident competitors - the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii), appeared to play an important role to the range-expansion of post-larval S. verreauxi - even at warmer future temperatures. However, S. verreauxi showed surprising behavioural adjustments by selecting suboptimal environmental temperatures. This may reduce growth, but aids to lower energy and feed requirements, and as a result relax the impacts of competitive food limitation. The findings of this project suggest that physiological capacities do not solely limit expansion of mature S. verreauxi, but also biotic resistance caused by competitors. S. verreauxi`s further expansion will likely depend on the well-being of the resident lobster J. edwardsii, which can cope with average future warming, but with reduced scope for additional pressures. Thus, if resident J. edwardsii suffers from the combined impact of warming and other stressors, such as disease, fishing or heat waves, S. verreauxi may fill vacant niches and establish in South-East Australia. As a result, resource-constrained management actions may focus on resident rather than range-shifting species. Overall, this case study showed that by decoding the complex interaction of individual and ecological responses to ongoing climate change, we will be able to better predict and respond more effectively to climate-driven species redistribution.

Publications

• (2020) A cross‐scale framework to support a mechanistic understanding and modelling of marine climate‐driven species redistribution, from individuals to communities. Ecography 43: 1764-1778
  Twiname S, Audzijonyte A, Blanchard JL, Champion C, de la Chesnais T, Fitzgibbon QP, Fogarty HE, Hobday AJ, Kelly R, Murphy KJ, Oellermann M, Peinado P, Tracey S, Villanueva C, Wolfe B, Pecl GT
  
• (2020) Mismatch of thermal optima between performance measures, life stages and species of spiny lobster. Scientific Reports 10: 21235
  Twiname S, Fitzgibbon QP, Hobday AJ, Carter CG, Oellermann M, Pecl GT
  
• (2020) Thermal sensitivity links to cellular cardiac decline in three spiny lobsters. Scientific Reports 10: 202
  Oellermann M, Hickey AJR, Fitzgibbon QP, Smith G
  
• (2021) Metabolic plasticity improves lobster´s resilience to ocean warming but not to climate-driven novel species interactions
  Oellermann M, Fitzgibbon QP, Twiname S, Pecl GT
  
• (2021) Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries: 1-21
  Melbourne-Thomas J, Audzijonyte A, Brasier MJ, Cresswell KA, Fogarty HE, Haward M, Hobday AJ, Hunt HL, Ling SD, McCormack PC, Mustonen T, Mustonen K, Nye JA, Oellermann M, Trebilco R, van Putten I, Villanueva C, Watson RA, Pecl GT
  
• (2022) Twiname S, Fitzgibbon QP, Hobday AJ, Carter CG, Oellermann M, Pecl G (2022) Resident lobsters dominate food competition with range-shifting lobsters in an ocean warming hotspot. Marine Ecology Progress Series
  Twiname S, Fitzgibbon QP, Hobday AJ, Carter CG, Oellermann M, Pecl G