Disentangling the effects of demography, dispersal and biotic interactions on population and community response to global change (BIOPIC)

• Applicant: Professorin Dr. Damaris Zurell
• Subject Area: Ecology and Biodiversity of Animals and Ecosystems, Organismic Interactions
• Term: from 2017 to 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 333890902

Mitigating rapid biodiversity loss is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. For designing and testing adequate policy and management strategies, we need improved biodiversity models that allow deriving quantitative estimates of potential species and community response to global environmental change. Species ranges are primarily limited by the physiological (abiotic) tolerance of the species, described by their fundamental niche. Additionally, demographic processes, dispersal, and biotic interactions with other species are shaping species distributions, resulting in the realised niche. Understanding the complex interplay between these drivers is vital for making robust biodiversity predictions to novel environments. Correlative species distribution models have been widely used to predict biodiversity response but also remain criticised, as they are not able to properly disentangle the abiotic and biotic drivers shaping species niches. Recent developments have thus focussed on (i) integrating demography and dispersal into species distribution models, and on (ii) integrating biotic interactions. Yet, many aspects of these models remain under-explored, for example, the required process detail to be incorporated in the models as well as the scale dependence and the spatial and temporal variation of the represented processes among others. Also, we are still missing a framework that fully integrates all these processes in a generic way, such that it is applicable and adaptable to a large number of species. Here, I propose setting up a research group that develops an integrated modelling framework able to disentangle the complex roles of demography, dispersal and biotic interactions in shaping species niches, and assess their effects on population and community response to global environmental change. The framework and its single components will be validated using a mix of simulated and empirical data, and it will be operationalized and tested for avian communities, for which multiple data sources will be synthesized in a novel way using Bayesian inference. In particular, the project will focus on five key research objectives aimed at (1) improving our understanding how life history and environment shape dispersal, (2) improving our understanding how life history and demography shape species niches, (3) improving our understanding how biotic interactions shape species niches, (4) developing and operationalizing multi-species dynamic distribution models, and (5) developing new biodiversity scenarios for European birds. Overall, the proposed project will improve the scientific basis for model-based biodiversity assessments and increase reliability of biodiversity predictions for broad spatial scales by providing both theoretical and conceptual advancements and by defining practical requirements and guidelines for the development and application of biodiversity models.

• DFG Programme: Independent Junior Research Groups