Disentangling the effects of demography, dispersal and biotic interactions on population and community response to global change (BIOPIC)

• Applicant: Professorin Dr. Damaris Zurell
• Subject Area: Ecology and Biodiversity of Animals and Ecosystems, Organismic Interactions
• Term: from 2017 to 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 333890902

• Final Report Year: 2023

Final Report Abstract

Understanding the interplay between different drivers of biodiversity change is vital for making robust predictions to novel environments. BIOPIC contributed to improving the scientific basis for model-based biodiversity assessments and biodiversity scenarios, providing theoretical and conceptual advancements and tools for understanding the role of dispersal, demographic processes and interspecific interactions for shaping species range, population and community dynamics. Our results show how improved modelling platforms paired with efficient statistical tools can help answering pressing fundamental and applied questions related, for example, to the attribution of recent biodiversity change to biotic and abiotic drivers, and to guiding conservation and restoration in a dynamic and rapidly changing world.

Publications

• Long-distance migratory birds threatened by multiple independent risks from global change. Nature Climate Change, 8(11), 992-996.
  Zurell, Damaris; Graham, Catherine H.; Gallien, Laure; Thuiller, Wilfried & Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
  
• Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 33(10), 790-802.
  Yates, Katherine L.; Bouchet, Phil J.; Caley, M. Julian; Mengersen, Kerrie; Randin, Christophe F.; Parnell, Stephen; Fielding, Alan H.; Bamford, Andrew J.; Ban, Stephen; Barbosa, A. Márcia; Dormann, Carsten F.; Elith, Jane; Embling, Clare B.; Ervin, Gary N.; Fisher, Rebecca; Gould, Susan; Graf, Roland F.; Gregr, Edward J.; Halpin, Patrick N. ... & Sequeira, Ana M.M.
  
• Advancing an interdisciplinary framework to study seed dispersal ecology. AoB PLANTS, 12(2).
  Beckman, Noelle G.; Aslan, Clare E.; Rogers, Haldre S.; Kogan, Oleg; Bronstein, Judith L.; Bullock, James M.; Hartig, Florian; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Zhou, Ying; Zurell, Damaris; Brodie, Jedediah F.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Cantrell, Robert Stephen; Decker, Robin R.; Efiom, Edu; Fricke, Evan C.; Gurski, Katherine; Hastings, Alan; Johnson, Jeremy S. ... & Zambrano, Jenny
  
• Better Model Transfers Require Knowledge of Mechanisms. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 34(6), 489-490.
  Bouchet, Phil J.; Peterson, A.Townsend; Zurell, Damaris; Dormann, Carsten F.; Schoeman, David; Ross, Rebecca E.; Snelgrove, Paul; Sequeira, Ana M.M.; Whittingham, Mark J.; Wang, Lifei; Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Oppel, Steffen; Mellin, Camille; Lauria, Valentina; Krishnakumar, Periyadan K.; Jones, Alice R.; Heinänen, Stefan; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Gregr, Edward J. ... & Yates, Katherine L.
  
• Employing plant functional groups to advance seed dispersal ecology and conservation. AoB PLANTS, 11(2).
  Aslan, Clare; Beckman, Noelle G.; Rogers, Haldre S.; Bronstein, Judie; Zurell, Damaris; Hartig, Florian; Shea, Katriona; Pejchar, Liba; Neubert, Mike; Poulsen, John; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Miriti, Maria; Loiselle, Bette; Effiom, Edu; Zambrano, Jenny; Schupp, Geno; Pufal, Gesine; Johnson, Jeremy; Bullock, James M. ... & Zhou, Ying
  
• Global predictors of alien plant establishment success: combining niche and trait proxies. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 286(1897), 20182477.
  Gallien, Laure; Thornhill, Andrew H.; Zurell, Damaris; Miller, Joseph T. & Richardson, David M.
  
• Macroecology in the age of Big Data – Where to go from here?. Journal of Biogeography, 47(1), 1-12.
  Wüest, Rafael O.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Alexander, Jake M.; Fritz, Susanne A.; Hof, Christian; Kreft, Holger; Normand, Signe; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Szekely, Eniko; Thuiller, Wilfried; Wikelski, Martin & Karger, Dirk Nikolaus
  
• Rapid changes in seed dispersal traits may modify plant responses to global change. AoB PLANTS, 11(3).
  Johnson, Jeremy S.; Cantrell, Robert Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Hartig, Florian; Hastings, Alan; Rogers, Haldre S.; Schupp, Eugene W.; Shea, Katriona; Teller, Brittany J.; Yu, Xiao; Zurell, Damaris & Pufal, Gesine
  
• Testing species assemblage predictions from stacked and joint species distribution models. Journal of Biogeography, 47(1), 101-113.
  Zurell, Damaris; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Gross, Helge; Baltensweiler, Andri; Sattler, Thomas & Wüest, Rafael O.
  
• The total dispersal kernel: a review and future directions. AoB PLANTS, 11(5)
  Rogers, Haldre S.; Beckman, Noelle G.; Hartig, Florian; Johnson, Jeremy S.; Pufal, Gesine; Shea, Katriona; Zurell, Damaris; Bullock, James M.; Cantrell, Robert Stephen; Loiselle, Bette; Pejchar, Liba; Razafindratsima, Onja H.; Sandor, Manette E.; Schupp, Eugene W.; Strickland, W. Christopher & Zambrano, Jenny
  
• A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models. Ecography, 43(9), 1261-1277.
  Zurell, Damaris; Franklin, Janet; König, Christian; Bouchet, Phil J.; Dormann, Carsten F.; Elith, Jane; Fandos, Guillermo; Feng, Xiao; Guillera‐Arroita, Gurutzeta; Guisan, Antoine; Lahoz‐Monfort, José J.; Leitão, Pedro J.; Park, Daniel S.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Schmatz, Dirk R.; Schröder, Boris; Serra‐Diaz, Josep M.; Thuiller, Wilfried ... & Merow, Cory
  
• Seasonal niche tracking of climate emerges at the population level in a migratory bird. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 287(1935), 20201799.
  Fandos, Guillermo; Rotics, Shay; Sapir, Nir; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Kaatz, Michael; Wikelski, Martin; Nathan, Ran & Zurell, Damaris
  
• Anthropogenic and environmental drivers shape diversity of naturalized plants across the Pacific. Diversity and Distributions, 27(6), 1120-1133.
  Wohlwend, Michael R.; Craven, Dylan; Weigelt, Patrick; Seebens, Hanno; Winter, Marten; Kreft, Holger; Zurell, Damaris; Sarmento, Cabral Juliano; Essl, Franz; van Kleunen, Mark; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr & Knight, Tiffany M.
  
• Can dynamic occupancy models improve predictions of species' range dynamics? A test using Swiss birds. Global Change Biology, 27(18), 4269-4282.
  Briscoe, Natalie J.; Zurell, Damaris; Elith, Jane; König, Christian; Fandos, Guillermo; Malchow, Anne‐Kathleen; Kéry, Marc; Schmid, Hans & Guillera‐Arroita, Gurutzeta
  
• Coding for Life: Designing a Platform for Projecting and Protecting Global Biodiversity. BioScience, 72(1), 91-104.
  Urban, Mark C.; Travis, Justin M. J.; Zurell, Damaris; Thompson, Patrick L.; Synes, Nicholas W.; Scarpa, Alice; Peres-Neto, Pedro R.; Malchow, Anne-Kathleen; James, Patrick M. A.; Gravel, Dominique; De Meester, Luc; Brown, Calum; Bocedi, Greta; Albert, Cécile H.; Gonzalez, Andrew & Hendry, Andrew P.
  
• Interannual climate variability data improves niche estimates in species distribution models.
  Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Saladin, Bianca; Wüest-Karpati, Rafael O.; Graham, Catherine H.; Zurell, Damaris; Mo, Lidong & Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
  
• RangeShifter 2.0: an extended and enhanced platform for modelling spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics and species' responses to environmental changes. Ecography, 44(10), 1453-1462.
  Bocedi, Greta; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Malchow, Anne‐Kathleen; Zurell, Damaris; Watts, Kevin & Travis, Justin M. J.
  
• RangeShiftR: an R package for individual‐based simulation of spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics and species' responses to environmental changes. Ecography, 44(10), 1443-1452.
  Malchow, Anne‐Kathleen; Bocedi, Greta; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Travis, Justin M. J. & Zurell, Damaris
  
• Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey. Ecological Applications, 31(5).
  Bleyhl, Benjamin; Ghoddousi, Arash; Askerov, Elshad; Bocedi, Greta; Breitenmoser, Urs; Manvelyan, Karen; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Soofi, Mahmood; Weinberg, Paul; Zazanashvili, Nugzar; Shmunk, Valerii; Zurell, Damaris & Kuemmerle, Tobias
  
• Scale dependency of joint species distribution models challenges interpretation of biotic interactions. Journal of Biogeography, 48(7), 1541-1551.
  König, Christian; Wüest, Rafael O.; Graham, Catherine H.; Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Sattler, Thomas; Zimmermann, Niklaus E. & Zurell, Damaris
  
• Spatially explicit models for decision‐making in animal conservation and restoration. Ecography, 2022(4).
  Zurell, Damaris; König, Christian; Malchow, Anne‐Kathleen; Kapitza, Simon; Bocedi, Greta; Travis, Justin & Fandos, Guillermo
  
• Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change.
  Malchow, Anne-Kathleen; Hartig, Florian; Reeg, Jette; Kéry, Marc & Zurell, Damaris
  
• Fitting individual-based models of spatial population dynamics to long-term monitoring data.
  Malchow, Anne-Kathleen; Fandos, Guillermo; Kormann, Urs G.; Grüebler, Martin U.; Kéry, Marc; Hartig, Florian & Zurell, Damaris
  
• Large carnivore range expansion in Iberia in relation to different scenarios of permeability of human‐dominated landscapes. Diversity and Distributions, 29(1), 75-88.
  Pratzer, Marie; Nill, Leon; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Zurell, Damaris & Fandos, Guillermo
  
• Standardised empirical dispersal kernels emphasise the pervasiveness of long‐distance dispersal in European birds. Journal of Animal Ecology, 92(1), 158-170.
  Fandos, Guillermo; Talluto, Lauren; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Robinson, Robert A.; Thorup, Kasper & Zurell, Damaris
  
• The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models.
  Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Mendoza-Ponce, Alma; Silva, André Pinto da; Oberpriller, Johannes; Mimet, Anne; Kieslinger, Julia; Berger, Thomas; Blechschmidt, Jana; Brönner, Maximilian; Classen, Alice; Fallert, Stefan; Hartig, Florian; Hof, Christian; Hoffmann, Markus; Knoke, Thomas; Krause, Andreas; Lewerentz, Anne; Pohle, Perdita; Raeder, Uta ... & Zurell, Damaris
  
• Vegetation cover restricts habitat suitability predictions of endemic Brazilian Atlantic Forest birds. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, 20(1), 1-8.
  Oliveira-Silva, Anna Elizabeth de; Piratelli, Augusto João; Zurell, Damaris & da Silva, Fernando Rodrigues
  
• Predicting extinctions with species distribution models. Cambridge Prisms: Extinction, 1.
  Zurell, Damaris; Fritz, Susanne A.; Rönnfeldt, Anna & Steinbauer, Manuel J.