Agent based modeling of payments for ecosystem services in Costa Rica – Adoption, dynamics and sustainability of silvopastoral practices

• Applicant: Dr. Sebastian Rasch
• Subject Area: Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Sociology
• Term: from 2017 to 2020
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 382306163

Cattle production on permanent pastures in Latin America causes prolonged concerns with respect to losses in biodiversity, increased greenhouse gas emissions and reduced carbon sequestration. Decreasing pasture productivity has led to massive deforestation in the past. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have been identified as a market based mechanism to incentivize reforestation and conservation of forest areas. Here, service providers are paid by service users for producing positive externalities. However, the exclusive land use of forestry constraints land owners and reduces their ability to generate income from agricultural production. Silvopastoral practices have been found to increase both; on-site and off-site benefits. The inclusion of tree and shrub species in the rangelands reduces erosion, increases biodiversity and carbon sequestration. On-site benefits are e.g. improved pasture, increased livestock productivity due to shade, timber, fodder and income diversification. Costa Rica, Nicaracua and Colombia pioneered the first PES program for silvopastoral practices. The Regional Integrated Silvopastoral Ecosystem Management Project (RISEMP) was implemented between 2002 and 2007 and was considered a huge success as it resulted in over 12000 ha of pastures with improved biodiversity and carbon sequestration. However, doubts remain on the sustainability of the program as it entailed finite payments which were hypothesized to “tip the balance”. The first objective of the research proposal is to elucidate the sustainability of payments made for silvopastoral adoption in Costa Rica. Only now, ten years after payments have ceased, the full scope of benefits arising from slow growing tree and shrub species is observable. The same accounts for the long-term adoption state of ecosystem service providers. The first objective will be approached with a household survey complementing secondary data. Data gathered during, and right after the end of the project, will allow investigating adoption states and conservation intensity over time. The second objective is the identification of processes of technology adoption. Recent studies emphasize that non-monetary drivers and communication pathways matter for adoption. That is, norms, models of bounded rationality and the position in social networks interact with monetary incentives. Agent based models have proven their ability to replicate the latter. Thus, the second objective will be approached by the development and analysis of an agent based model of PES adoption of silvopastoral practices. Here, the ratios between payment levels, conservation intensity and long-term sustainability will be investigated by the simulation model. The ratios will be tested in scenarios of a shift in farm structure and social embededdness. Moreover, the analysis of different social network topologies will contribute to theory development. The model will be parameterized with empirical data.

• DFG Programme: Research Fellowships
• International Connection: Costa Rica
• Host: Dr. Tobias Wünscher