MagmaPropagator: A forecasting tool for location and time of volcanic eruptions due to off-conduit magma propagation.

• Applicants: Professorin Eleonora Rivalta, Ph.D.; Professor Dr. Gert Zöller
• Subject Area: Geophysics ; Geodesy, Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing, Geoinformatics, Cartography
• Term: from 2018 to 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 406819817

• Final Report Year: 2024

Final Report Abstract

This project sought to pioneer a physics-based methodology for forecasting the location and timing of fissure eruptions resulting from sub-surface magma propagation. When propagating in volcanic edifices, magma frequently deviates from the central conduit of the volcano and forces its ways through intricate pathways along the flanks. Within calderas, the pathways of magma become notably intricate, and eruptive fissures are dispersed over extensive areas. Many densely populated areas are built on top of old eruptive fissures, with hazard assessments traditionally relying solely on the statistics of spatial patterns of past eruptions. Our objective was to introduce a physics-driven understanding of magma propagation. Key accomplishments of this project include: 1) Integration of two established deterministic two-dimensional models, one focused on trajectory and the other on dike velocity. Leveraging the expertise of the German and French teams, we created a comprehensive two-dimensional model capable of concurrently calculating trajectory and timing information for magma-filled fissures; 2) Formulation of a hybrid deterministic-statistic Bayesian approach to deduce the present mechanical stress state of a volcano, constrained by past eruptive patterns; 3) Rigorous testing of the forecasting approach using synthetic data obtained from dedicated analog laboratory experiments and numerical scenario simulations; 4) Application of the two-dimensional stress inversion method to Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy; 5) Development of a comprehensive framework for transitioning the approach into three dimensions, enabling its eventual application in forecasting the locations of future eruptive vents at natural volcanic sites. This achievement stands as the first physics-based, long-term forecasting tool for predicting the future distribution of eruptive vents; 6) Through our various models, we deepened our understanding of how the stress state of volcanoes of different shapes evolves over time and how the geological history of an edifice governs the migration of surface volcanism.

Publications

• Vent location forecasts at calderas: a physics-based approach. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2018, pp. T31F-0375).
  Rivalta, E., Corbi, F., Passarelli, L., Davis, T., Acocella, V. & Di Vito, M.A.
  
• On the Propagation Path of Magma‐Filled Dikes and Hydrofractures: The Competition Between External Stress, Internal Pressure, and Crack Length. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 20(4), 2064-2081.
  Maccaferri, F.; Smittarello, D.; Pinel, V. & Cayol, V.
  
• Stress field control on magma path and velocity. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2019, pp. V12A-01)
  Pinel, V., Smittarello, D., Maccaferri, F., Rivalta, E. & Cayol, V.
  
• Velocity variations of a propagating dyke in presence of an external stress field: insights from analogue models. In Geophysical Research Abstracts (Vol. 21)
  Smittarello, D., Pinel, V., Maccaferri, F. & Cayol, V.
  
• A Monte Carlo Markov Chain Approach to Stress Inversion and Forecasting of Eruptive Vent Locations, Physics of Volcanoes 2020, Hamburg, Germany, 11-12 February 2020 (Poster)
  Mantiloni, L., Davis, T., Gaete Rojas, A.B. & Rivalta, E.
  
• A Monte Carlo Markov Chain Approach to Stress Inversion and Forecasting of Eruptive Vent Locations.
  Mantiloni, Lorenzo; Davis, Tim; Gaete, Rojas Ayleen Barbara & Rivalta, Eleonora
  
• Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards. Reviews of Geophysics, 58(4).
  Merz, Bruno; Kuhlicke, Christian; Kunz, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Babeyko, Andrey; Bresch, David N.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Feser, Frauke; Koszalka, Inga; Kreibich, Heidi; Pantillon, Florian; Parolai, Stefano; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Punge, Heinz Jürgen; Rivalta, Eleonora; Schröter, Kai; Strehlow, Karen; Weisse, Ralf & Wurpts, Andreas
  
• Magma ascent at floor-fractured craters diagnoses the lithospheric stress state on the Moon. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 530, 115889.
  Michaut, Chloé; Pinel, Virginie & Maccaferri, Francesco
  
• Characterizing the physical properties of gelatin, a classic analog for the brittle elastic crust, insight from numerical modeling. Tectonophysics, 812, 228901.
  Smittarello, D.; Pinel, V.; Maccaferri, F.; Furst, S.; Rivalta, E. & Cayol, V.
  
• Deterministic- Statistical Forecast of Eruptive Vent Locations with Realistic Topographies, AGU Fall Meeting 2021, New Orleans, LA, 13-17 December 2021 (Pre-recorded talk and Poster, online), 2021AGUFM.V32B..03M, V32B-03.
  Mantiloni, L., Davis, T., Gaete Rojas, A.B. & Rivalta, E.
  
• Gelatin-based analog models simulating dike propagation in the upper crust
  Mantiloni, L., Davis, T., Gaete, A. & Rivalta, E.
  
• Propagation velocity of magma intrusions, a new 2D numerical approach. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (pp. EGU21- 8628)
  Furst, S., Pinel, V. & Maccaferri, F.
  
• Stress Inversion in a Gelatin Box: Testing Eruptive Vent Location Forecasts With Analog Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(6).
  Mantiloni, L.; Davis, T.; Gaete, Rojas A. B. & Rivalta, E.
  
• Stress Inversion in Gelatin: A Mechanical-Statistical Approach to Eruptive Vent Location Forecasts Tested on Analog Models, 107th Congress of the Italian Society of Physics, Milan, Italy (online), 13-17 September 2021 (Pre-recorded talk, online)
  Mantiloni, L., Davis, T., Gaete Rojas, A.B. & Rivalta, E.
  
• Ascent rates of 3-D fractures driven by a finite batch of buoyant fluid. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 954.
  Davis, Timothy; Rivalta, Eleonora; Smittarello, Delphine & Katz, Richard F.
  
• Buoyancy Versus Local Stress Field Control on the Velocity of Magma Propagation: Insight From Analog and Numerical Modelling. Frontiers in Earth Science, 10.
  Pinel, Virginie; Furst, Séverine; Maccaferri, Francesco & Smittarello, Delphine
  
• Dike Propagation Scenarios and Forecast of Eruptive Vents at Calderas, AGU Chapman Conference 2022, Flagstaff, AZ, 19-23 September 2022 (Oral), D-4.
  Mantiloni, L. Davis, T., Rivalta, E., Passarelli, L. & Pinel, V.
  
• Energy budget during magma ascent: using viscous fluid-filled crack in laboratory models to investigate magmatic dike intrusions in natural settings. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (pp. EGU22- 5634)
  Gaete, A., Maccaferri, F., Rivalta, E. & Pino, N.A.
  
• Modelling the shape of a growing fluid-filled crack and computing its propagation velocity: application to magmatic dykes. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (pp. EGU22-4214)
  Maccaferri, F., Furst, S. & Pinel, V.
  
• NYKISHU: Interactions between the Nyiragongo volcano, lake Kivu, its aquatic ecosystem and the Human system: an integrated knowledge approach, Colloque du Groupe de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Grand Rift Africain, 22-24 November 2022, Lyon, France
  Virginie Pinel, Catherine Meriaux, Jan Beyne & Marcellin Rutegwa
  
• The analog model, the numerical model and the Piton de la Fournaise: tale of a propagating dike. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (pp. EGU22-3045)
  Furst, S., Pinel, V. & Maccaferri, F.
  
• Vers une prédiction de la position et du moment de l'ouverture d'une fissure éruptive par assimilation de données, Colloque du G2 2022 : Géodésie, Géophysique et Montagne, 8-10 nov. Grenoble (France)
  Zuccali, L., Virginie Pinel & Yajing Yan
  
• A comparative study of magma ascent and storage below impact craters on terrestrial planets.
  Le Contellec, Alexandra; Michaut, Chloé; Maccaferri, Francesco & Pinel, Virginie
  
• A Simplified Model of Dyke Pathways for Stress Inversion in Calderas: Towards Physics-Based Forecasting of Eruptive Vent Locations, Physics of Volcanoes 2023, Hannover, Germany, 1-3 March 2023 (Oral).
  Mantiloni, L., Rivalta, E., Davis, T., Passarelli, L., Anderson, K. & Pinel, V.
  
• Analogue experiments on the generation of seismic signals during dyke propagation, IAVCEI 2023 General Assembly, January 30 – February 3, 2023, Rotorura, New Zealand.
  S. Furst, V. Pinel & J. Vandemeulebrouck
  
• Architecture of magma pathways and eruptive vent locations controlled by evolving lithospheric stresses. IAVCEI 2023 General Assembly, January 30 – February 3, 2023, Rotorura, New Zealand (Oral, online)
  Rivalta, E.
  
• Backtracking Magma Pathways to Locate the Source Feeding the Auckland Volcanic Field. 16th Annual DEVORA Research Forum, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand, 19 October 2023 (Oral, online)
  Rivalta, E.
  
• Constraining the stress state of volcanoes through magma trajectories and eruptive vent locations. IAVCEI 2023 General Assembly, January 30 – February 3, 2023, Rotorura, New Zealand (Oral, online)
  Rivalta, E.
  
• Evaluation of magma rising-induced surface displacement models using analogue experiments, Geomod 2023, Paris, 25-28 sept. 2023.
  Pinel, V., Galland, O., Furst, S., Métral, L., Camus, B. & Maccaferri
  
• Evaluation of magma rising-induced surface displacement models using analogue experiments, Meeting UNIGE-Chambéry: volcanology, high enthalpy geothermal systems, and geophysics, 11 October 2023, Chambéry. (Oral)
  Pinel V.
  
• Geophysical constraints and perspectives for modeling the shape and velocity of a magmatic intrusion at Piton de la Fournaise, IUGG23- 2580, IUGG Berlin 2023, the 28th General Assembly, July 2023
  Furst, S. & F. Maccaferri, V. Pinel
  
• Mechanical Modeling of Pre‐Eruptive Magma Propagation Scenarios at Calderas. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 128(3).
  Mantiloni, L.; Rivalta, E. & Davis, T.
  
• Modeling stress and dike pathways in calderas: towards a physics-based forecast of eruptive vent locations, PhD thesis defended in October 2023 at the University of Potsdam
  Mantiloni, Lorenzo
  
• Modeling the Shape and Velocity of Magmatic Intrusions, a New Numerical Approach, Geomod 2023, Paris, 25-28 sept. 2023.
  Furst, S. & F. Maccaferri, V. Pinel
  
• Modeling the Shape and Velocity of Magmatic Intrusions, a New Numerical Approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 128(3).
  Furst, S.; Maccaferri, F. & Pinel, V.
  
• SAM: Simplified Analytical Model of Dyke Pathways in Three Dimensions. GFZ Data Services.
  Mantiloni, Lorenzo; Rivalta, Eleonora & Davis, Timothy
  
• Sill to dyke transition beneath a caldera: the competition between local stress and regional extension. Insights from analogue experiments applied to Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (pp. EGU-12143)
  Maccaferri, F., Gaete Roja, A. & Mantiloni, L.
  
• Stress Inversion and Forecast of Future Vent Locations in Calderas: Combining a Monte Carlo Algorithm with a Physics-based Model of Dike Propagation, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23-28 April 2023 (Poster), EGU23-13438.
  Mantiloni, L., Rivalta, E., Davis, T., Passarelli, L., Anderson, K. & Pinel, V.
  
• Surface displacement field induced by an ascending Weertman crack: numerical modeling versus analogue experiments.
  Pinel, Virginie; Galland, Olivier; Furst, Séverine; Métral, Laurent; Camus, Baptiste & Maccaferri, Francesco
  
• What controls where and when magma comes to the surface? Joint seminar Geo@EAIFR and CoEB, Université du Rwanda, June 7, 2023
  Pinel, V.
  
• Stress Inversion in Calderas with a Simplified Model of Dyke Pathways: Towards a Physics-Based Forecast of Eruptive Vent Locations, The 60th Anniversary VMSG Meeting, Bristol, UK, 3-5 January 2024 (Poster).
  Mantiloni, L., Rivalta, E., Davis, T., Passarelli, L. & Anderson, K.