Modeling the transport demand of same day visitors, short vacationers and vacationers in large cities

• Applicant: Professor Dr.-Ing. Carsten Sommer
• Subject Area: Urbanism, Spatial Planning, Transportation and Infrastructure Planning, Landscape Planning
• Term: from 2018 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 409499825

Uncommon leisure traffic constitutes one of the main sources of particulate and NOx-emissions caused in traffic. Uncommon leisure traffic comprises both arrival and departure of same-day visitors and (short) vacationers, and their trips at the destination. In the city of Kassel, for example, visitors already conduct one out of seven trips. Visitors therefore account for approx. 14% of all ways in the city of Kassel. However, this share is likely to be even higher in cities with a predominant tourist orientation. Uncommon leisure traffic in particular has recorded an above-average rise in traffic volume during the last few years which mainly has to be attributed to private cars. A further growth of traffic volume due to (short) vacations and private day trips is expected in the future. Accordingly, the achievement of environmental and climate change objectives is gaining in importance. However, in the field of transportation planning as well as in the area of mobility and tourism research, uncommon leisure traffic has been largely neglected so far, since surveys on mobility behaviour mainly focus on everyday mobility. Accordingly, uncommon leisure traffic has been neglected in model-based traffic forecasts, too.The overall objective of this research project is to develop a universally applicable model-based planning tool that will enhance the quality of model-based traffic forecasts. It will be based on a depiction of uncommon leisure traffic by means of cause-effect correlations. Thus, a model-based investigation of measures concerning uncommon leisure traffic will be made possible. Moreover, the impact of these measures on the environment and traffic can be estimated as well. The following objectives are derived from the abovementioned overall objective:- development of a macroscopic model to depict uncommon leisure traffic, being composed of theoretical model approaches (algorithms) and a corresponding survey concept,- development of an approach for market segments which considers the homogeneity in their behaviour as well as the overall forecasting ability, - exemplary application of the model on two market segments, - gain more detailed knowledge of conclusions on uncommon leisure traffic in big cities, based on literature research, existing data and our own surveys.With the results of this project, it will be possible to influence uncommon leisure traffic more effectively within the field of strategic transportation planning. Since the model is supposed to react sensitively to measures, different measures or packages of measures can be simulated. Also, the impact these measures have after their implementation can be estimated more precisely. Furthermore, both local and touristic decision-makers and administrations will benefit from the expected findings as the results of this project offer important insights into the subject of uncommon leisure traffic.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants