Sustainability assessment of irrigated agriculture: Rebound effects in semi-arid Uzbekistan (RebUz)

• Applicant: Dr. Ahmad Hamidov, Ph.D.
• Subject Area: Hydrogeology, Hydrology, Limnology, Urban Water Management, Water Chemistry, Integrated Water Resources Management ; Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Sociology
• Term: since 2019
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 418629468

The main aim of the proposal is to study the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in semi-arid regions of Uzbekistan by evaluating the adoption of water-saving technologies and their rebound effects in light of climate change stresses. The specific objective is to study the impacts of introducing water- and energy-saving irrigation technologies and quantify potential rebound effects. Specific project activities are structured into four work programmes: (1) Stock-taking and preparatory work - A general analysis of the current situation for implementation of irrigation technologies and selection of study cases; (2) Documentation and evaluation of water- and energy-saving technologies; (3) An ex-ante impact assessment of sustainable water and energy management, including possible rebound effects, and projections for future is investigated with stakeholders; (4) Synthesis and validation of impact-assessment results and identification of key determinants for sustainable management of water- and energy-saving technologies. Innovative approaches – fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) model – will be employed for context analysis and combined with a well-established participatory impact assessment method.The proposed research project will contribute towards the objectives of the Green Central Asia initiative, particularly regarding improved efficiency in water use and improving technological solutions. A recent initiative by the government of Uzbekistan – adoption of Water Resources Development Strategy 2020–2030, according to which the water-saving irrigation technologies should be installed on 2 million ha (about 50% of the total irrigated area) of irrigated lands by 2030 – may likely to encourage farmers to adopt these technologies. However, these reforms may also trigger the increase in water and energy use for producing food. There is growing evidence that efficiency improvements in irrigation water use may come with rebound effects – adaptive changes in the behavior of farmers and consumers that offset part or all of expected resource savings. Therefore, research findings related to ex-ante water consumption and maintenance of soil health in the drylands of Uzbekistan should provide evidence-based knowledge regarding the intended and actual sustainability of newly installed water- and energy-saving technologies.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Uzbekistan
• Cooperation Partners: Kakhramon Djumaboev; Professor Dr. Mukhamadkhan Khamidov
• Co-Investigators: Professor Dr. Konrad Hagedorn; Professorin Dr. Katharina Helming