Fire in the Future: Interactions with Ecosystems and Society
Final Report Abstract
Wildfires are increasingly becoming an adaptation challenge and vegetation-fire models can foster better understanding of the main processes and they can support adaptation and fire management. In this project, we have advanced the understanding of anthropogenic and biophysical drivers of wildfires and we have developed new models for human ignitions and burned area globally that incorporate biophysical and social drivers. We showed, for example, i.) that anthropogenic cropland fires play a crucial role in global initiation patterns, ii.) that fire exclusion policies lead to a tenfold decline in burnt area in the U.S. over the course of the last century, iii.) that the global decline in burned area is related and potentially explained by an increase in the Human Development Index, iv) that forest thinning and prescribed burning can reduce fuel load and fireline intensities, but with lower impacts on simulated total carbon storage than expected and v) a strong increase in fire-related risks to societies in the U.S. under future global warming. Our new monthly burned area model shows remarkable skill in reproducing global wildfire patterns. It has been tailored for straight-forward implementation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and we expect that it will be adopted for future scenario studies.
Publications
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Land use intensification increasingly drives the spatiotemporal patterns of the global human appropriation of net primary production in the last century. Global Change Biology, 28(1), 307-322.
Kastner, Thomas; Matej, Sarah; Forrest, Matthew; Gingrich, Simone; Haberl, Helmut; Hickler, Thomas; Krausmann, Fridolin; Lasslop, Gitta; Niedertscheider, Maria; Plutzar, Christoph; Schwarzmüller, Florian; Steinkamp, Jörg & Erb, Karl‐Heinz
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The influence of thinning and prescribed burning on future forest fires in fire-prone regions of Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 17(5), 055010.
Rabin, S. S.; Gérard, F. N. & Arneth, A.
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Towards a global behavioural model of anthropogenic fire: The spatiotemporal distribution of land-fire systems. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 4, 18130.
Perkins, Oliver; Matej, Sarah; Erb, Karlheinz & Millington, James
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Effect of Socioeconomic Variables in Predicting Global Fire Ignition Occurrence. Fire, 6(5), 197.
Mukunga, Tichaona; Forkel, Matthias; Forrest, Matthew; Zotta, Ruxandra-Maria; Pande, Nirlipta; Schlaffer, Stefan & Dorigo, Wouter
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The Role of Wildfires in the Interplay of Forest Carbon Stocks and Wood Harvest in the Contiguous United States During the 20th Century. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 37(8).
Magerl, Andreas; Gingrich, Simone; Matej, Sarah; Cunfer, Geoff; Forrest, Matthew; Lauk, Christian; Schlaffer, Stefan; Weidinger, Florian; Yuskiw, Cody & Erb, Karl‐Heinz
