Subseasonal predictability facilitated through the stratosphere (C08)

• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science
• Term: from 2019 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 257899354

Sources of predictability of mid-latitude weather at subseasonal time scales with lead times of 2-6 weeks are specific anomalies in regions outside the extratropical troposphere, namely strong anomalies of the strato-spheric polar vortex and tropical anomalies. In this project, we seek to better quantify and understand the subseasonal extratropical predictability facilitated through the stratosphere, both independent of and in con-cert with tropical sources of predictability. We will use dynamical and statistical methods including machine learning (ML) approaches together with a dedicated global large ensemble simulation strategy to explore the predictability of the large-scale circulation and its practical relevance for the predictability of regional ex-treme weather events.

• DFG Programme: CRC/Transregios
• Subproject of: TRR 165: Waves to Weather
• Applicant Institution: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
• Project Heads: Professor Dr. Thomas Birner; Professorin Dr. Hella Garny; Professor Dr. Joaquim G. Pinto