Data-driven thermomechanical modelling of lava flows

• Applicant: Dr. Alik Ismail-Zadeh
• Subject Area: Mineralogy, Petrology and Geochemistry ; Geophysics
• Term: from 2020 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 429622451

This project addresses the evolution of lava flows by utilization of scientific knowledge in understanding of rheological behaviour of lavas and integration of observations / measurements on temperature, heat flow, and displacement at the lava surface into quantitative models to provide accurate information on lava inundation and to assist in hazard and risk assessments. Therefore, the project specific objectives are (i) to develop a comprehensive physical understanding of lava flow activity combining the latest advances in determination of lava rheology and composition with quantitative models of lava flow using data assimilation; (ii) to develop new numerical techniques and enhanced codes to compute models of lava flow based on real-time observations on lava surface temperature and heat flow and flow morphology; and (iii) to assess the performance of lava flow models of assimilated observations in order to determine how the science-based outputs could be incorporated into disaster reduction management. The project work will be split into four major tasks: (1) collection and analysis of surface thermal data, topography of lava flows, and lava samples from the Mount Etna, Sicily, Italy; (2) development of enhanced numerical tool for rapid assimilation of data in models of lava flow; (3) assimilation of data in models of lava flows due to eruptions of the Etna volcano; and (4) scientific interpretation of model results and their implementation in hazard assessment of lava flows. The following deliveries are expected: Online dataset on measured surface lava temperature, heat flow, and emplacement of lavas as well as on modelled lava temperature, flow rate, and viscosity; data assimilation simulator (a numerical code for rapid data assimilation into lava flow models); data-driven models of lava flow at the Mount Etna; scientific publications and reports on modelling and forecasting during effusive crises, specifically addressed to the humanitarian and early warning community. From a scientific point of view, acquiring a deeper understanding of lava flows though quantitative studies will support the definition of common research strategies for progressing geoscience research and education. From a socio-economic point of view, improved understanding of lava flow behaviour will have a direct benefit on the economy and well-being of the several hundred thousands of people worldwide vulnerable to the products of effusive eruptions and lava flow. The project results would allow more effective implementation of preventative measures before an eruption begins and during eruption. A feasibility of the research and delivering project results is supported by the significant and long-term experience of the German and Russian principal investigators of the project in the field of mathematical and numerical modelling of geodynamic processes, including lava flows, and the recognition of their results by the geoscientific community.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Italy, Russia, USA
• Partner Organisation: Russian Foundation for Basic Research
• Co-Investigators: Professor Dr. Donald Bruce Dingwell; Professor Dr. Frank Rüdiger Schilling
• Cooperation Partners: Professor Dr. Alexander Korotkii; Dr. Ciro del Negro, Ph.D.; Dr. Augusto Neri, Ph.D.; Professor Robert Wright, Ph.D.