Data-driven thermomechanical modelling of lava flows

• Applicant: Privatdozent Dr. Alik Ismail-Zadeh
• Subject Area: Mineralogy, Petrology and Geochemistry ; Geophysics
• Term: from 2020 to 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 429622451

• Final Report Year: 2024

Final Report Abstract

Volcanic eruptions belong to the extreme events that change the Earth’s landscape and affect global climate and environment. Although a main attention is given to explosive eruptions, non-explosive eruptions leading to large lava flows or dome growth, with their subsequent collapse and pyroclastic flows, are equally important. This project has addressed the main scientific question: how quantitative modelling and observations can improve the understanding of the lava dynamics? Although no mathematical/numerical model is likely to represent the exact magma extrusion and lava dynamics, the thermomechanical models developed in this project account for the main dynamic processes and characteristics associated with lava flows or dome growth. Namely, the models include the mass and heat transfer, the degassing-induced crystallization kinetics, the latent heat of crystallization, the convective and radiative heat flux at the air-lava interface, conductive heat flux at the crater surface and the shallow conduit wall, and the lava viscosity depending on the volume fraction of crystals and temperature. To solve the models, a few numerical approaches have been developed and applied to study the lava dynamics in different geological areas: an andesitic lava dome growth at Volcán de Colima, Mexico during 2007-2009; an ancient rhyolitic lava flow at Summit Lake, Yellowstone, USA; and a basaltic lava flow at Mt. Etna, Italy in 2015. Three-dimensional numerical models of lava flow have clarified the influence of the surface topography and lava flow viscosity on the advancement and duration of the flow. A sensitivity analysis of the model results with respect to model parameters, performed for the case of lava flows at Mt. Etna, showed a range of the parameters, where the model results fit well the observations. The modelled lava advancement at the Summit Lake agrees with the observations assuming that the pressure change in the magma chamber during the eruption changed the volcanic topography. With the increase of the magma viscosity, the lava flow on the surface slows down and its thickness increases leading to changes in the lava flow morphology. It was shown that the combined effects of the thermal evolution and crystallization in the dome interior and the cooling at the air-lava interface shape the lava dome during long episodes of its building at Volcán de Colima. The developed thermomechanical models of the lava dynamics can be used at other volcanoes during effusive eruptions, lava flows, and lava dome building.

Publications

• 3D Numerical Modeling of the Summit Lake Lava Flow, Yellowstone, USA. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 57(2), 257-265.
  Tsepelev, I. A.; Ismail-Zadeh, A. T. & Melnik, O. E.
  
• Data-driven numerical modeling of the lava dome growth at Volcán de Colima, Mexico during 2007-2009. AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, USA, 13-17 December 2021. Poster presentation (online), https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm21/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/795479
  Zeinalova, N., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Melnik, O., Tsepelev, I. & Zobin, V.
  
• Lava Dome Morphology and Viscosity Inferred From Data-Driven Numerical Modeling of Dome Growth at Volcán de Colima, Mexico During 2007-2009. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9.
  Zeinalova, Natalya; Ismail-Zadeh, Alik; Melnik, Oleg; Tsepelev, Igor & Zobin, Vyacheslav
  
• Numerical modelling of the 2007-2009 lava dome growth in the crater of Volcan de Colima, Mexico. GeoKarlsruhe (DGGV 2021), Karlsruhe, Germany. 19–24 September 2021. Oral presentation (online)
  Zeinalova, N. & Ismail-Zadeh, A.
  
• Assimilating Data on the Location of the Free Surface of a Fluid Flow to Determine Its Viscosity. Proceedings of the Steklov Institute of Mathematics, 319(S1), S162-S174.
  Korotkii, A. I.; Tsepelev, I. A. & Ismail-Zadeh, A. T.
  
• Mathematical and numerical models of lava dome dynamics. 33rd IUGG Conference on Mathematical Geophysics (CMG2022), Seoul, South Korea, 20-24 June 2022. Oral presentation (online)
  Zeinalova, N., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Melnik, O. & Tsepelev, I.
  
• Numerical modeling of lava dome growth at Volcán de Colima. Physics of Volcanoes 2022 workshop, 3-4 March 2022. Oral presentation (online)
  Zeinalova, N., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Melnik, O., Tsepelev, I. & Zobin, V.
  
• Numerical thermo-mechanical modelling of lava dome growth. KCDS X GRACE Crossover Workshop, Karlsruhe, 12 December 2022. Poster presentation
  Zeinalova, N., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Tsepelev, T., Melnik, O. & Schilling, F.
  
• Inverse Problems in Lava Dynamics. Applications of Data Assimilation and Inverse Problems in the Earth Sciences, 196-208. Cambridge University Press.
  Ismail-Zadeh, Alik; Korotkii, Alexander; Melnik, Oleg; Starodubtsev, Ilya; Starodubtseva, Yulia; Tsepelev, Igor & Zeinalova, Natalya
  
• Modelling of the lava dome growth the 2007-2009 dome-building eruption at Volcán de Colima, Mexico. 28th IUGG General Assembly, Berlin, Germany, 11-20 July 2023. Poster presentation
  Zeinalova, N., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Melnik, O., Tsepelev, I., Schilling, F. & Zobin, V.
  
• Numerical modelling of lava dome evolution. MathSEE Symposium 2023, Karslruhe, 27-29 September 2023. Oral presentation
  Zeinalova, N., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Tsepelev, I., Melnik, O. & Schilling, F.
  
• Numerical thermo-mechanical modelling of lava dome growth during the 2007-2009 dome-building eruption at Volcán de Colima. General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU), 23-28 April 2023, Vienna, Austria
  Zeinalova, N., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Melnik, O., Tsepelev, I. & Schilling F.
  
• Numerical thermomechanical modelling of lava dome growth during the 2007–2009 dome-building eruption at Volcán de Colima. Geophysical Journal International, 236(1), 290-304.
  Zeinalova, Natalya; Ismail-Zadeh, Alik; Tsepelev, Igor; Melnik, Oleg & Schilling, Frank
  
• Three-Dimensional Numerical Modeling of Lava Dynamics Using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics Method. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 17(3), 175-186.
  Starodubtsev, I. S.; Starodubtseva, Y. V.; Tsepelev, I. A. & Ismail-Zadeh, A. T.
  
• Numerical Approaches to Modelling of Lava Dome Growth. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, 67-80. Springer Nature Switzerland.
  Zeinalova, Natalya; Ismail-Zadeh, Alik; Tsepelev, Igor; Melnik, Oleg & Schilling, Frank