Sociohydrological analysis of drought resilience in Sahelian Sudan farming systems (SHADRESS)
Final Report Abstract
The arid and semi-arid areas of Sudan (ca. 1.03 million km2), constitutes one-third of the African Sahel, are essential for food production. Variability of rainfall and Nile River flow in the wake of climate change and increasing food demand jeopardizes food security. Drought poses a main risk of crop failure. Understanding the relationships of natural and societal interactions in this sociohydrological system is essential to improve drought resilience and reduce stress on the natural and social systems. A clear understanding of the drought risk to crops, the societal ability to cope and the options to improve drought resilience is therefore imperative. We developed a novel approach to identify and quantify the sociohydrological resilience to drought by combining available ground- and satellite-based data and products with two structured farm surveys considering three farming systems, namely traditional rainfed, mechanized rainfed and irrigated. New drought indices were developed and mapped to examine how the drought variations in time and space affected croplands and rendered parts marginal for cultivation. These indices were further used to assess drought risk to two main staple crops (sorghum and millet). Using a newly developed smartphone app and employing existing cooperation networks, a survey of management strategies of different agricultural actors was carried out, augmenting a previously available survey. These two surveys provide data on how households perceive, cope with and adapt to the biophysical drought risk, what constraints they face in responding to it, what interventions they expect from extension services or policymakers, and which socioeconomic household factors drive these perceptions and coping/adaptation strategies. The first survey conducted during the period 2016-2022 with ~1100 households and ~30 questions using traditionally paper-based approach. The second survey took place from July 2022 to May 2024 using a newly designed app to collect more detailed and geolocated data (> 70 questions). With responses by > 1900 stakeholders, this latter survey provides a spatially distributed dataset which is unique in its scope and breadth, building the basis for further analyses. The two survey datasets open the opportunity to compare results and diagnose change. Using the former survey, first results obtained using machine learning approaches were produced to understand the complex determinants of the farmers’ choice in decision making to improve resilience in a drought-vulnerable area. Combined with factors impeding adaptation and the information on potentials to improve resilience, the results provide insights into cause-effect relationships regarding drought vulnerability and helped formulation of guide adaptation strategies.
Publications
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Do droughts and floods pose similar risks to Sahel staple food crop?. Copernicus GmbH.
Elagib, Nadir A.; Ali, Marwan M.A. & Schneider, Karl
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Drought versus flood: What matters more to the performance of Sahel farming systems?. Hydrological Processes, 37(9).
Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Al Zayed, Islam Sabry; Khalifa, Muhammad; Rahma, Abbas E.; Ali, Marwan M. A. & Schneider, Karl
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Assessing the agreement between farmers’ perception of drought and a remote sensing-based drought Index. WARMS-2024: 2nd International Conference on Water Resources Management and Sustainability: Solutions for Arid Regions, February 26-28, 2024, Dubai, UAE.
Elagib, N.A., Rahma, A.E., Khalifa, M., Ali, M.M.A & Schneider, K.
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Evaluation and bias correction of CRU TS4.05 potential evapotranspiration across vast environments with limited data. Atmospheric Research, 299, 107194.
Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Ali, Marwan M.A. & Schneider, Karl
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Capturing geospatial data on farm management practices in vulnerable farmer-water systems: Lessons from the Sahel. Copernicus GmbH.
Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Ahmed, Bashir M.; Sulieman, Hussein M.; Rahma, Abbas E.; Ali, Marwan M.A. & Schneider, Karl
