Project Details
Projekt
The consequences of biodiversity loss and land use change on infectious disease emergence
Subject Area
Virology
Term
since 2021
Project identifier
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 458328858
The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic clearly demonstrates the vulnerability of health, societies and economies worldwide to new emerging infectious diseases. Similar to other pathogens, its origin and stages of emergence remain largely obscure. The emergence of infectious diseases, in particular vector-borne zoonotic diseases, has been linked to environmental changes, such as biodiversity loss, land use and socioeconomic change. Increasing livestock densities and massive global environmental change is responsible for the ongoing sixth mass extinction. While the far-reaching shifts in species abundance and density are predicted to affect infectious disease transmission patterns and accelerate pandemic emergence, there is little understanding of the underlying drivers of the emergence process. This project focuses on the understanding of epidemic emergence by dissecting the most initial processes and dynamics of infectious disease emergence in rural settings of hotspot regions for virus emergence based on a multi-host and multi-pathogen system. The interdisciplinary and international team aims to detect and model arbovirus infection and transmission patterns in mosquitoes, livestock (cattle and goats as hosts for Rift Valley fever virus and chicken as hosts for West Nile virus) and humans (hosts for Dengue virus, Chikungunya virus, Zika virus and Yellow fever virus) under varying ecological and socioeconomic conditions at the interface to natural biodiversity hotspots in order to identify common patterns and drivers of emerging diseases. We will further study the genetic adjustment of pre-epidemic variants by analysing intra- and inter-host genetic diversity and selective pressures as drivers for virus evolution and diversification after spillover infections to new vectors and hosts. In addition, we will probe the host transcriptome response to infection with pre-epidemic arboviruses at the single cell level. We will assess how changes in vector and host species community composition, socio-economic parameters, land use and climate impacts arbovirus emergence through phylogeographic reconstruction of virus spatial movement and ecological niche factor analysis. Risk of virus emergence will be modelled across time and space under different socioeconomic, land use and climatic change scenarios. Based on these findings we will be able to predict the effectiveness of policy interventions to reduce the current and future risk of zoonotic epidemic outbreaks under changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Overall, the project will allow the early detection of emerging viruses in a hotspot region of virus emergence, study spillover infections in mosquitoes, livestock and humans using state of the art molecular methods and provide effective prevention and risk reduction measures.
DFG Programme
Research Grants
International Connection
Uganda
International Co-Applicants
Professor Julius Lutwama, Ph.D.; Anthony Nsubuga, Ph.D.; Innocent Bidason Rwego, Ph.D.
