School Closures and NPIs during the Great Influenza Pandemic in Sweden

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Martin Karlsson
• Subject Area: Economic Policy, Applied Economics
• Term: since 2021
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 467132381

The overall aim of the project is to increase our knowledge on the consequences for health and human capital of school closures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during a pandemic, with an application to Sweden during the 1918-19 influenza pandemic. Within the project, we will construct an exceptionally rich historical database, which includes a) extremely detailed and accurate individual-level information (demographics, socioeconomic background, place of residence/schooling, labour market outcomes, etc), and b) detailed high-quality aggregate data regarding the timing and intensity of the pandemic, measures taken to contain it, and a large number of background variables. The database will include the entire Swedish population at the time (5.4M) and all 2.500 local authorities.Using this outstanding database, research in the project will address three broad research questions: 1) Did the NPIs, in particular school closures, have the intended effect on the spread of the pandemic? Under what circumstances and in what subpopulations where the measures particularly effective? (2) What were the long-run consequences for the school children affected by the closures – in terms of educational attainment, labour market outcomes and other indicators of socioeconomic status? (3) How does the local distribution of political power affect the propensity to enact NPIs? Is it easier to implement harsh measures if political power is concentrated in the hand of a few, and are there signs that there is a conflict of interest between the elites in society and the broad masses?The project is executed as an international collaboration between researchers in Germany and Denmark. In particular, the project aims at bringing together complementary expertise in a number of different areas which enable the construction of an outstanding dataset, an evaluation of the data using state-of-the art econometric techniques, with a deep understanding of the historical context and of the various different literatures which are relevant.The results of the project would be of great interest within academia and to policy-makers and other societal stakeholders. The Great Inluenza Pandemic has some striking similarities with the COVID-19 pandemic (as well as some notable differences) and therefore represents a promising case study for understanding some of the deeper implications of measures taken today.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Denmark
• Cooperation Partner: Professor Dr. Christian Möller Dahl