Rebellion, elections and the pandemic in the Central African Republic: Covid-19 and its impact on deep-seated patterns of governance

• Applicant: Dr. Tim Glawion
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: from 2021 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 468208645

The pandemic reaches the Central African Republic (CAR) just when citizens were passing milestones for ending the country's conflicts through the implementation of a peace agreement and holding national elections. A new rebellion broke out in late 2020 that hindered medical access to some of the most impoverished areas of this country that continuously ranks second to last on the Human Development Index. An interplay of rebellion, elections and containing the Covid-19 pandemic have become the critical triangle deciding whether CAR can overcome its deep-seated patterns of governance that are stifling political and economic progress. These patterns are outsourced governance, marginalized peripheries and pluralized violence. The population has had its say: it is fed up with the rebels and it is ready for democratic change. A peace agreement in 2019 and elections in 2020 were supposed to turn the page. However, the pandemic monopolized international attention, enabled rebels to fly under the radar, and allowed governments to use emergency measures. Currently, the peace agreement has been violated to such absurd degrees that rebels have struck an agreement with former autocrat Bozizé, whom they had toppled years ago to strengthen their armed struggle against the current government. The elections were so fraught that the government’s legitimacy is at a low, leading it to engage in popular, but risky maneuverers against the rebels that are far beyond their military’s capacity. All the while, dealing with the pandemic is entirely left to international non-governmental organisations (and their internationally subsidised national counterparts), who have had to abandon many towns due to the fighting. Despite all this the story is only written halfway. The pragmatic, internationally coordinated handling of the pandemic with a few trustworthy, efficient national partners has led to relatively low infection rates (if numbers are credible). Treating the pandemic has again shown how dependent CAR is on international aid and how little the government or rebels are willing to provide services to their citizens. Over the coming months the pandemic could thus become a trigger that challenges the existing order rather than being used as a tool to continue extortionist policies. We thus ask, in how far has the Covid-19 pandemic deepened or ruptured CAR’s governance patterns? To study changing patterns of governance during the pandemic on a national level we conduct telephone interviews with key stakeholders from government, the UN mission, NGOs, and civil society. On a local level we use our well-established networks to collect data remotely in two peripheral localities and the capital. Combined, these data sources will allow us to observe how the Covid-19 pandemic challenges CAR’s deep-seated patterns of governance in the period of 2019 to 2021, which spans a peace agreement, elections, a pandemic, recurrence of rebellion, and developments to come.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Central African Republic
• Cooperation Partner: Igor Calvon Acko