Methods for coordinated optimization of water supply systems with evolving energy sys-tems under deep climatic uncertainty

• Applicant: Professor Dr.-Ing. Wolfgang Nowak, since 4/2022
• Subject Area: Hydrogeology, Hydrology, Limnology, Urban Water Management, Water Chemistry, Integrated Water Resources Management
• Term: since 2022
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 497454543

Climate change stresses freshwater resources, with many regions in the world already facing severe droughts. It is crucial to carefully design systems that can adapt to changing conditions and offer long-term sustainability. Society must also assure the cost-effectiveness of water supply, so that water can be supplied regardless of a territory’s wealth. In addition, energy systems are moving towards massive shares of renewable sources. This will result in highly dynamic energy prices in the near future, which will impact the design and operation of water supply systems. Understanding more complex (e.g., multi-source) water systems, long-term investment planning of coupled water-energy systems, and long-term sustainability under climate change are critical issues that require more research. These aspects are even more relevant for arid regions in the world, where energy-intensive technologies, such as seawater desalination, must be used to supply the water needs. The overarching goal of our project is to improve the planning process of infrastructure and operation of water supply systems, focusing on water extraction and production from multiple sources. These methods for decision-making will be tailored to resource scarcity, climate uncertainty, and to the ongoing transformation of energy systems, while addressing the complexities of multi-source water systems. Our research is structured into three objectives with corresponding work packages. First, we will advance methods for scheduling the short-term (weeks) operation of complex systems for local water supply. We will do so by developing novel multi-objective optimization models for water supply systems embedded in smart electricity markets, focusing on the extraction of water from multiple sources at minimal energy costs. Machine learning techniques for predicting the water-demand and electricity-cost for water production will be embedded within that optimization model. Second, we will develop an optimization model for coordinated investment planning for the infrastructure of water-and-energy systems. These will be designed to be secure against droughts of different intensities and durations, such as the mega-droughts that many countries have been facing in recent years. Third, we will extend our methods to cope with deep uncertainties driven by climate change that coin long-term (up to decades) water resources management. For that, we will develop a framework that focuses on adaptive management strategies for investments. Our fundamental research will contribute with novel methods and with a framework for sustainable and cost-effective management of regional water supply systems, including both operation and infrastructure planning. Advancing these planning methods will contribute to preparing water supply systems to cope with climate change and to face threats to water security.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• Ehemaliger Antragsteller: Dr.-Ing. Jannik Haas, until 3/2022