Human bioclimate in the Arctic in an era of climate change

• Applicant: Elena Grigoreva, Ph.D.
• Subject Area: Physical Geography ; Atmospheric Science
• Term: since 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 527911707

Nowadays climate is changing globally; climate change in the Arctic carries wide-ranging implications for Indigenous and non-Indigenous inhabitants, causing direct and indirect health effects. The northern latitudes’ climatic and weather conditions themselves, reinforced by recent dramatic climate changes with a high probability of temperature extremes, contribute to social and economic changes in urban and rural areas. The study of these changes should address specific natural and social features, including concerns of indigenous people. A recent index that is increasingly used to address human comfort in the context of climate and weather is the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). Whilst air temperature alone serves as a good indicator of the current and future weather and climate conditions, it can be reinforced by the strong wind and high ambient air humidity, which can be aggravated tremendously, especially in winter in the coastal areas. The project aims to identify and assess current bioclimatic conditions using UTCI: to show the extreme variations and recent temporal changes in the Arctic, and to evaluate social vulnerability to the cold climatic environment. Positive consequences of global climate warming and society benefits from these changes in northern latitude will be discussed. Spatial and temporal distribution of threshold temperatures which are used to determine cold and heat waves in the Arctic, their frequency and intensity, will be estimated. Social vulnerability to the cold climatic exposure in the northern latitudes will be determined using Social vulnerability index (SVI), which include both natural (cold climate) and societal (social sensitivity and adaptability) components. SVI estimation at the study area will give a picture of social vulnerability in the Arctic as a whole, or a general vision of the problem, providing insights for the development of strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change in the Arctic. To delve deeper into the regional details of SVI, the social-economic environment of municipalities in the northern part of Norway will be tested as a case study. The results of the project can serve as a useful tool for minimizing population losses and guaranteeing social security in the Arctic, providing policymakers with a solid scientific basis for prevention and mitigation of climatic disasters, which is extremely important for people the northern areas in an era of climate change.

• DFG Programme: WBP Position