Improved quantitative precipitation forecasting in Vietnam
Final Report Abstract
The original project was divided into six work packages, most involving the use of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), High Resolution Numerical Weather Forecast Model (HRM). These work packages were on the topics: 1. Forecast verification; 2. Case studies; 3. Idealized studies; 4. Synthetic tropical-cyclone vortex for HRM; 5. Soil moisture analysis and data assimilation, and; 6. Adaptation of physical parameterization in HRM. As the project evolved, two further topics emerged as high priority areas: 7. The use of satellite radiances, and 8. The development of a three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (3D-VAR) for HRM. Indeed the successful development of the 3D-VAR-scheme, which included the capability to assimilate satellite radiance data, was one of the highlights of the research to date. Other major accomplishments of the project were the development of a new soil moisture analysis scheme as well as a scheme for inserting a synthetic typhoon vortex into the HRM. Very significant progress was made on the topic of idealized studies, where some new insights into the fundamental process of tropical-cyclone intensification were developed. These insights have led since to a new paradigm for tropical-cyclone intensification and have contributed to a new paradigm for tropical cyclogenesis. There were some small disappointments also like conflicts in resource allocation between research and operational tasks in Vietnam as may have been expected in an endeavour such as this. In summary, this project, which started initially in the form of technology transfer, has paved the way for significant scientific achievements.
Publications
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2008. Tropical-cyclone intensification and predictability in three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy Met. Soc., 134, 563-582
Nguyen, S. V., R. K. Smith and M. T. Montgomery
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2009. Balanced and unbalanced aspects of tropical-cyclone intensification. Quart. J. Roy Met. Soc. 135, 1715-1731
Bui, H. H., R. K. Smith, M. T. Montgomery, and J. Peng
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2009. Do tropical cyclones intensify by WISHE? Quart. J. Roy Met. Soc., 135, 1697-1714
Montgomery, M. T., S. V. Nguyen, and R. K. Smith
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2009. The axisymmetric spin up of tropical-cyclones revisited. Quart. J. Roy Met. Soc. 135, 1321–1335
Smith, R. K., M. T. Montgomery, and S. V. Nguyen
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2010. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone models to the surface exchange coefficients. Quart. J. Roy Met. Soc., 136, 1945–1953
Montgomery, M. T., R. K. Smith, and S. V. Nguyen
