Resolving Trophodynamic Consequences of Climate Change (RECONN2): Match-mismatch between Secondary and Tertiary Production in the Baltic Sea
Final Report Abstract
The project RECONN2 within the priority program 1162 AQUASHIFT was proposed to improve our capabilities of understanding and predicting climate change impacts on a marine ecosystem, here the Baltic Sea. The proposed research project (RECONN2) was designed to specifically address the effects of a potential rise in ambient temperature on the matchmismatch dynamics of zooplankton, larval and adult fish in the Baltic Sea. The key trophic player in focus was sprat (Sprattus sprattus), a small clupeid fish species that is a sensitive bio-indicator of climate change. Further, sprat is an ecological and economical important species as well in the Baltic as in the North Sea. However, problems occurred in successfully rearing sprat larvae during the project and a number of relevant experiments concerning larval growth were performed with herring larvae. During the first funding period, we focussed on the implications of rising ambient temperatures on vital rates (survival rates, growth and development) of early life stages of Baltic clupeids by applying a combination of experimental and field data approaches (time series analyses). Further, temperature dependent growth models for clupeid fish larvae were established taking into account RNA/DNA ratios. During the second phase, the aforementioned experiments were complemented by conducting a series of experimental trials that focused on the influence of differences in salinity and food size spectrum on development, growth and survival of fish eggs and larvae. Additionally, the research focus during the second phase was to develop a more general picture of the influence of climatic processes on Baltic sprat population dynamics. This included (i) developing process models on adult sprat growth and reproduction based on available field data, and (ii) combining experimental data, field data as well as modelling activities (in co-operation with RECONN 1). For the synthesis of RECONN2 a life table approach was chosen. This approach required a complete parameterisation of life stage dependent sprat vital rates to establish a population matrix model. The life table approach provided a single model framework that allows us (i) to identify critical life stages of sprat in relation to population dynamics and different temperature scenarios, (ii) to simulate the future population development under different climate change scenarios, and (iii) to draw conclusions on population dynamics in a matchmismatch context. The main results were that the transition probability of feeding larvae has the largest impact on population dynamic and a temperature elevation up to 4°C would lead to an increase in the intrinsic growth rate of the modelled sprat population. The latter result is due to the fact, that development and stage duration of sprat early life stages is accelerated by increasing ambient temperatures. However, feeding larvae will only profit from accelerated development when quantity and quality of their prey items allows maintaining the higher metabolism. Thus, an elevation in temperature will narrow the “window of opportunity” beyond a certain level, because the necessity to find a perfect match situation becomes more important. Within RECONN2 we have identified aspects of the thermal ecology of Baltic sprat that require future study such as the potential importance of YOY overwinter survival and feedback loops between temperature, prey and sprat reproduction.
Publications
- (2004) Estimating Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus) population size from egg production. Fish Res 69: 313-329
Kraus G, Köster FW
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2004.06.005) - (2005) Ontogenic changes in the allometric scaling of the mass-length relationship in sprat (Sprattus sprattus). J Fish Biol 66 (3): 882-887
Peck MA, Clemmesen C, Herrmann JP
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-1112.2005.00651.x) - (2006) Baltic sprat larvae: Coupling food availability, larval condition and survival. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 308: 243-254
Voss R, Clemmesen C, Baumann H, Hinrichsen HH
(See online at https://doi.org/doi:10.3354/meps308243) - (2006) Intercalibration of four spectrofluorometric protocols for measuring RNA/DNA ratios in larval and juvenile fish. Limnol Oceanogr Methods 4: 153-163
Caldarone EM, Clemmesen CM, Berdalet E, Miller TJ, Folkvord A., Holt GJ, Olivar MP, Suthers IM
(See online at https://doi.org/10.4319/lom.2006.4.153) - (2006) The impact of exceptional warm summer inflow events on the environmental conditions in the Bornholm Basin. J Mar Sys 60: 285-301
Mohrholz V, Dutz J, Kraus G
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.10.002) - (2007) An individual based model for the direct conversion of otolith into somatic growth rates. Fish Oceanogr 16 (3): 207-215
Hinrichsen HH, Buehler V, Clemmesen C
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.2007.00425.x) - (2007) Correlation analysis of Baltic Sea winter water mass formation and its impact on secondary and tertiary production. Oceanologia 49 (3): 1-15
Hinrichsen HH, Lehmann A, Petereit C, Schmidt J
- (2007) Depth-dependent nutritional condition of sprat (Sprattus sprattus) larvae in the central Bornholm Basin, Baltic Sea. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 341: 217-228
Dänhardt A, Peck MA, Temming A, Clemmesen C
(See online at https://doi.org/10.3354/meps341217) - (2008) Multi-species larval fish growth model based on temperature and fluorometrically derived RNA/DNA ratios: results from a metaanalysis. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 371: 221-232
Buckley LJ, Caldarone EM, Clemmesen C
(See online at https://doi.org/10.3354/meps07648) - (2008) The influence of temperature on the development of Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus) eggs and yolk sac larvae. Mar Biol 154: 295-306
Petereit C, Haslob H, Kraus G, Clemmesen C
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-008-0923-1) - (2009) Advances in Early Life History Study of Fish (eds.) Scientia Marina 73 S1, 1-222
Clemmesen C, Malzahn AM, Peck MA, Schnack D
(See online at https://doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2009.73n1) - (2009) Seasonal changes and population dynamics of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi after its first year of invasion in the Kiel Fjord, Western Baltic Sea. Biol Inv 11: 873-882
Javidpour J, Molinero CJ, Peschutter J, Sommer U
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-008-9300-8) - (2009) The influence of different salinity conditions on egg buoyancy and development and yolk sac larval survival and morphometric traits of Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus Schneider). Sci Mar 73(S1): 59-72
Petereit C, Hinrichsen HH, Voss R, Kraus G, Freese M, Clemmesen C
(See online at https://dx.doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2009.73s1059) - (2009) Use of biochemical indices for analysis of growth in juvenile two-spotted gobies (Gobiusculus flavescens) of the Baltic Sea. Sci Mar 73(S1):159-170
Frommel A, Clemmesen C
(See online at https://dx.doi.org/10.3989/scimar.2009.73s1159) - (2010) Variability of larval Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) otolith growth: a modeling approach combining spatially and temporally resolved biotic and abiotic environmental key variables. Fish Oceanogr 19 (6): 463-479
Hinrichsen HH, Voss R, Huwer B, Clemmesen C
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.2010.00557.x) - (2011) Spatial and interannual variability in Baltic sprat batch fecundity. Fish Res 110: 289-297
Haslob H, Tomkiewicz J, Hinrichsen HH, Kraus G
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2011.04.018) - (2012) Dynamics of postovulatory follicles and oocyte growth in Baltic sprat. J Sea Res 67: 27-33
Haslob H, Kraus G, Saborido-Rey F
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2011.09.001) - (2012). On the edge of death: Rates of decline and lower thresholds of biochemical condition in food-deprived fish larvae and juveniles. J. Mar. Syst. 93, 11-24
Meyer, S, Caldarone, EM, Chicharo, MA, Clemmesen, C, Faria, AM, Faulk, C, Folkvord, A, Holt, GJ, Hoie, H, Kanstinger, P, Malzahn, A, Moran, D, Petereit, C, Stottrup, JG, Peck, MA
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.09.010)
