Developing and harnessing land-use models to understand and assess changes in tropical deforestation

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Thomas Knoke
• Subject Area: Forestry
• Term: since 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 544938808

This project aims to explore the causes of tropical forest losses and evaluate measures that have previously contributed to reducing them. This involves (1) identifying factors influencing deforestation and (2) assessing their economic impact relative to counterfactual reference scenarios, which are generated by simulating the deforestation trajectory that would have been expected without a given deforestation-influencing factor. By comparing observed deforestation against these reference scenarios, one can derive economic costs and benefits associated with altering deforestation trajectories. Our project proposes modeling global reference scenarios for tropical deforestation using advanced land-use models, including 26 tropical countries accounting for 90% of past deforestation. Additionally, the project aims to refine this modeling approach further to support analyses of the impact of specific forest conservation measures at the regional level, using example regions from Ecuador. To assess the economic consequences of deforestation-related changes, we intend to consider the social costs of avoided or additional carbon emissions and the necessary compensatory expenses for tropical forest restoration. We anticipate that modern land-use models capable of accommodating land managers’ heterogeneous expectations about the future can provide independent reference scenarios and facilitate reliable economic assessments.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants