SPP 1167:  Quantitative Precipitation Forecast PQP (Praecipitationis Quantitativae Praedictio)

• Subject Area: Geosciences
• Term: from 2004 to 2010
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 5472089

• Final Report Year: 2011

Final Report Abstract

The overall scientific objectives have been I Identification of physical and chemical processes responsible for the deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecast II Determination and use of the potentials of existing and new data and process descriptions to improve quantitative precipitation forecast III Determination of the prognosis capacity of weather forecast models by statistico-dynamic analyses with respect to quantitative precipitation forecast All together about thirty groups from University institutes, research centers and the German National Meteorological Service DWD cooperated to advance the weather forecasting capabilities for precipitation. More than 100 publications and the COPS experiment which was the largest meteorological field experiment conducted so far on quantitative precipitation forecasting in low-mountain regions and in Germany over the past 20 years gave the PP1167-PQP a high international visibility. DWD integrated itself much closer into the German weather and climate research community through intensive collaboration on various areas than in the years before. The concentration of the work within the PP1167-PQP on highly relevant research like data assimilation or the validation of forecasts has stimulated new coordinated research and educational efforts at various University institutes, in the cooperation with DWD and major research institutes. It initiated further coordinated research like the Hans Ertel Zentrum for Weather Research funded by Federal Ministry of Transportation, Building and Urban Development via DWD. To bundle the research efforts in the PP1167-PQP and to initiate synergy between the expertises of the various groups the coordination team of PP1167 organized the different projects under four topics. These have been (1) Orography and convection, (2) Data assimilation and stochastic system studies, (3) Microphysics of clouds and aerosols, (4) Verification. Within these topics a series of equally important key findings for quantitative precipitations forecasting and verification could be established. Among them are e.g. ―Resolution is the solution‖: the comparison of types of forecasts from models of different resolution reveals that models with the smallest grid size / highest resolution tend to produce the better forecasts; or that the information from remote sensing devices like precipitation from radar or water vapor structures from GPS-based methods has a positive impact on short range precipitation prediction provided that a state-of-the-art forecast model is combined with an equally realistic data assimilation system.

Publications

• 2005. Roll convection during a cold air outbreak: A large eddy simulation with stationary model domain. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32. 2005, L14805.
  M. Gryschka, S. Raasch
  
• 2006. Orographic enhancement of precipitation over low mountain ranges, Part I: Model formulation. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 45. 2006, No. 8, pp. 1025-1040.
  M. Kunz, Ch. Kottmeier
  
• 2006. Orographic enhancement of precipitation over low mountain ranges, Part II: Simulations of heavy precipitation Events. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 45.2006, No. 8, pp. 1041-1055.
  M. Kunz, Ch. Kottmeier
  
• 2006. The representation of low-level clouds in atmospheric models: Part II: Spatial distribution from satellite remote sensing during the BALTEX Bridge Campaigns. Atmospheric Research, Vol. 82. 2006, Issues 1–2, pp. 83–101.
  Schröder, M., N. P. M. van Lipzig, F. Ament., J.P.Chaboureau, S. Crewell, J. Fischer, V. Matthias, E. van Meijgaard., A. Walther, U. Willén
  
• 2007. Results obtained with a Semi-Lagrangian Mass-Integrating Transport Algorithm by using the GME grid. In: Large-Scale Scientific Computing: 6th International Conference, LSSC 2007, Sozopol, Bulgaria, June 5-9, 2007. Revised Papers. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Vol. 4818. 2007, pp 417-424.
  W. Joppich, S. Pott
  
• 2007. Separation of convective and stratiform precipitation for a precipitation analysis of the local model of the German Weather Service, Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), Vol. 10. 2007, pp. 159-165.
  I. Langer, E. Reimer
  
• 2007. Statistical downscaling of extreme precipitation events using censored quantile Regression. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 135.2007, No. 6, pp. 2365 - 2378.
  P. Friederichs, A. Hense
  
• 2008. Assimilation of radar derived rain rates in the convective scale model COSMO-DE at DWD., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 134. 2008, Issue 634, pp. 1315–1326.
  K. Stephan, S. Klink, C. Schraff
  
• 2008. Development and optimization of the IPM MM5 GPS slant path 4DVAR system. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 17. 2008, No. 6, pp. 867 - 885.
  Zus, Florian; Grzeschik, Matthias; Bauer, Hans-Stefan; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Dick, Galina; Bender, Michael
  
• 2008. Process-oriented statistical-dynamical evaluation of LM precipitation forecasts. Advances in Geosciences, Vol. 16. 2008, pp. 33-41.
  A. Claußnitzer, I. Langer, P. Nevir, E. Reimer, U. Cubasch
  
• 2008. Statistics of convection initiation by use of Meteosat rapid scan data during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 17. 2008, No. 6, pp. 921 - 930.
  Aoshima, Fumiko; Behrendt, Andreas; Bauer, Hans-Stefan; Wulfmeyer, Volker
  
• 2009. Analysis of quantitative precipitation forecasts using the Dynamic State Index. Atmospheric Research, Vol. 94. 2009, Issue 4, pp. 694–703.
  Claußnitzer A., P. Névir
  
• 2009. Generation of free convection due to changes of the local circulation system. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9. 2009, issue 21, pp. 8587-8600.
  Eigenmann, R., Metzger, S., Foken, T.
  
• 2009. Multi-model simulations of a convective situation in lowmountain terrain in central Europe. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 103. 2009, Issue 1, pp 95-103.
  Trentmann, J., Ch. Keil, M. Salzmann, Ch. Barthlott, H.-S. Bauer, M. Lawrence, D. Leuenberger, H. Wernli, V. Wulfmeyer, U. Corsmeier, Ch. Kottmeier
  
• 2010. How representative were the meteorological conditions during the COPS field experiment in summer 2007? Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 19. 2010, Number 6, pp. 619-630.
  Wernli, H., S. Pfahl, J. Trentmann, and M. Zimmer
  
• 2010. On the orthogonalization of bred vectors - Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 25,2010, No. 4, pp. 1219-1234.
  Keller, J.D., Hense, A., Kornblueh L., Rhodin A.
  
• 2010. Tropospheric Water Vapor Transport as Determined from Airborne Lidar Measurements. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 27.2010, No. 12, pp. 2017-2030.
  Schäfler, A., A. Dörnbrack, C. Kiemle, S. Rahm, M. Wirth
  
• 2011. Cloud statistics and Quarterly cloud radiative effect for a lowmountain site. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137. 2011, Issue S1, pp. 306–324.
  Ebell, K., S. Crewell, U. Löhnert, D. Turner, E. o'Connor
  
• 2011. Evaluation of moist processes during intense precipitation in km-scale NWP models using remote sensing and in-situ data: Impact of microphysics size distribution assumptions. Atmospheric Research, Vol. 99. 2011, Issue 1, pp. 15–38.
  Van Weverberg K., N.P.M. van Lipzig, L. Delobbe
  
• 2011. Latent heat flux measurements over complex terrain by airborne water vapour and wind lidars. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137. 2011, Issue S1, pp. 190–203.
  Kiemle C., M. Wirth , A. Fix, S. Rahm, U. Corsmeier, P. Di Girolamo