The Agricultural Policy Trilemma in Post-Soviet Countries: Cultivating Growth Amidst Complexity

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Thomas Herzfeld
• Subject Area: Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Sociology
• Term: since 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 550387913

The research project "The Agricultural Policy Trilemma in Post-Soviet Countries" aims to apply the macroeconomic policy trilemma to the agricultural policy field and assess the policies’ role in agricultural development. It contains a theoretical and an empirical component. Potential trade-offs between goals will be assessed from a theoretical perspective, resulting in a spatial presentation (e.g., in the form of a triangle) of the countries of the Former Soviet Union according to the degree to which their agricultural policies prioritise the stimulation of domestic production, integration in international markets or non-economic objectives. The theoretical approaches to model the agricultural sector's growth will be systematically reviewed, and the role of agricultural policies will be analysed from a comparative static perspective. The empirical component encompasses an analysis of the development of agricultural policies across the FSU and their role in agricultural growth. This project will develop or adapt various indices to quantify countries' agricultural policies. Statistical and econometric methods will be applied to test the tradeoffs between goals and estimate the partial contribution of policies to growth. Finally, machine learning methods will be applied to predict agricultural growth under different policy scenarios. The project will publish the findings in several peer-reviewed publications and provide the generated data for a wider audience via repositories.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants