Project Details
Projekt
Effect of Global Warming on the Frequency and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones: A Toarcian Perspective
Subject Area
Geology
Term
since 2025
Project identifier
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 558393132
Numerical models predict that anthropogenic warming will increase the frequency, trajectory, and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) by up to 25%, leading to several hundreds of deaths and billion dollars in infrastructure damages each year. However, a lack of longer-term spatial and temporal observations of those events using historical records results in major inconsistencies regarding TC projections. Studying past global warming events, such as the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE, Early Jurassic, ca. 183 Ma), offers a unique opportunity to understand TC dynamics during periods of extreme climate change. The T-OAE was characterized by a 4-7°C increase in sea-surface temperature and the sedimentary signature of TCs is convincingly documented from different sites. The main objective of the STORM project is to investigate the frequency, intensity, and environmental impact of TCs during the T-OAE, using a multi-proxy approach combining sedimentological, geochemical, and geophysical data with forward numerical simulations. A field campaign in Morocco will focus on the exceptionally well-preserved TC deposits along a 60 km-long transect, where six lithostratigraphic sections will be studied. The transitional offshore setting, known for its preservation of extreme storm event deposits, will be examined in detail to identify cyclical and astrochronological signals that reveal storm frequencies. High-resolution analysis of delta13Corg and delta13Ccarb, combined with Sr-isotope measurements and major and trace elements, will provide a precise chronological framework linking paleoenvironmental changes with storm activity. A key component of the project will involve the use of the BARSIM 2D numerical model to simulate shallow-marine sediment transport under different storm regimes. By comparing the model outputs with observed sedimentary patterns from Morocco, we aim to quantify storm strength and recurrence during the T-OAE. The combination of observational data and numerical simulations will provide critical insights into the interaction between TC dynamics and global warming.
DFG Programme
Research Grants
International Connection
China, Denmark, Morocco
Co-Investigators
Professor Dr. Dennis Krämer; Dr. Sylvia Riechelmann
Cooperation Partners
Professor Dr. Stephane Bodin; Professor Dr. Lahcen Kabiri; Professor Dr. David Kemp; Professor Dr. Qing Yan, Ph.D.
