Project Details
Projekt
Data2Model: Building the knowledge to convert observations to models
Applicants
Dr. Mauro Cacace; Professor Dr. Marcel Thielmann
Subject Area
Geophysics
Term
since 2025
Project identifier
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 560300382
The area around the Adriatic Sea is characterized by a large seismic hazard, the cause being the different slabs subducting beneath that region. Physics-based seismic hazard assessment of this region requires dynamic earthquake rupture models. The results of such rupture models rely on initial conditions, the initial stress state and the fault geometry. Both input parameters are quite unconstrained due to limited observations, thus rendering predictions relatively inaccurate. The SPP DEFORM will address this issue by integrating observations from geology, geomorphology, geodesy and geophysics with numerical modelling to quantify the physical drivers of seismic hazard around the Adriatic Sea. The main driver of earthquake rupture, the crustal stress field, is not sufficiently constrained with existing observations. Its spatiotemporal evolution is governed by the interaction of shallow crustal structures with deeper lithospheric structures, namely the subducting slabs beneath the Adria. However, the exact geometry and configuration of these slabs is still being debated. This hampers the development of a comprehensive and physically consistent understanding of the earthquake hazard. With Data2Model, we aim at advancing the predictive capability of conventional exploratory studies (e.g. seismic tomographies) by integrating them in a workflow derived from physics-based geodynamic modelling. Data2Model will develop the infrastructure that will allow to seamlessly integrate geophysical, geodetic, geological and geomorphological data sets, interpret them and design data-driven geodynamic models around the Adriatic Sea. Most importantly, building on this workflow, Data2Model will also develop the means to conduct geodynamic inversions to constrain the state of stress in the crust and lithosphere and to quantify the uncertainty and range of geometric and parameter variations. As a result, Data2Model will provide significantly improved crustal stress fields for earthquake rupture simulations.
DFG Programme
Priority Programmes
