Vegetation-microclimate feedbacks under forest disturbance, management, and climate change in the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot : impacts on climatic microrefugia and species distribution in Africa

• Applicant: Temesgen Abera, Ph.D.
• Subject Area: Ecology and Biodiversity of Plants and Ecosystems ; Physical Geography
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 560330469

Forest canopies are important drivers of microclimates and regulate temperature, light and water conditions, thereby providing microrefugia for various plant and animal species. Microclimates in turn control species growth, distribution, abundance, biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Vegetation-microclimate feedbacks (VMFs) in forests are therefore critical for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services globally, which underpin many of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, the current ability to track microclimate dynamics and VMFs in biodiversity hotspots is a major challenge because existing spatially extensive microclimate data below forests are still interannually static and current methodologies do not account for the effects of forest disturbance and management. Consequently, it is unclear how different land-use scenarios affect VMFs and constrain the spatio-temporal trajectories of microclimate buffering, microrefugia and species distribution, especially in global biodiversity hotspots. This is particularly important in the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot (EABH) in Africa, which is characterised by high levels of species endemism and is one of the most threatened ecosystems by land use and climate change. The VEMIE project therefore aims to elucidate VMFs under forest disturbance, management, and climate change in the EABH by: (1) modelling the spatio-temporal dynamics of microclimate temperature (Tmicro) and predicting future Tmicro under climate change projections; (2) assessing the spatio-temporal evolution of microclimate buffering and microrefugia; and 3) modelling the distribution of ericaceous species, which dominates the upper treeline ecotone in the EABH, and providing evidence on how microclimate change in turn affects species distribution. The VEMIE project will use innovative methods that make use of in situ measurements from new installations of microclimate sensors in EABH, already existing global networks of microclimate measurements, 3D forest canopy structure from airborne and spaceborne lidar, analysis-ready satellite time series, advanced machine learning, and species distribution modelling techniques. The VEMIE project will provide novel insights in microclimate dynamics and VMFs. While the insights gained from this project can be applied to other montane biodiversity hotspots in the tropics, the methodology can be easily extended to assess VMFs under land use and climate change in forest ecosystems at mid-to-high latitudes, providing an important contribution to microclimate management and the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• Co-Investigator: Dr. Dirk Zeuss