THERMAL-INTERACT: Human Thermal Stress due to Climate Change in the European and Mediterranean area

• Applicants: Professorin Dr. Elke Hertig; Professor Dr. Heiko Paeth
• Subject Area: Physical Geography ; Atmospheric Science
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 562632482

Human thermal stress is not only related to air temperature, but also to atmospheric humidity, wind conditions and radiation. It is undebatable that future climate change leads to a further increase of air temperatures in the European and Mediterranean area. However, there is a research gap on how other meteorological variables governing thermal stress will change on a regional scale, how these changes affect the intervariable relationships, and what consequences arise from these changes for human health. In addition, it is unclear whether statistically significant climate change signals of compound extremes can be detected in meteorological observations and climate model projections at the regional to local scale. The current research proposal is focused on changes in compound extremes that are relevant to human thermal stress in Central Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Innovative elements of this project pertain the investigation of compound heat events in a meteorological context and in the climate-health nexus. The comparison of heat-related risk maps between two European regions and their differentiation by personal and structural modifiers is also a novel aspect. From a methodical point of view, we will develop a new framework for assessing compound events by means of multivariate extreme value distributions, including the quantification of uncertainty and of climate change signals based on regional climate models and Monte Carlo methods.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants