Forests under Climate Change - Impacts of Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors on Montane Dry Forest Ecosystems (FOCI)

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Michael Leuchner
• Subject Area: Forestry ; Physical Geography
• Term: since 2025
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 564506475

In South America, landscape degradation, aggravated by deforestation and climate change, threatens to become one of the largest carbon sources, a danger to biodiversity and a threat to many local communities through the loss of important ecosystem services, depriving them of their livelihoods. Despite the important local and global significance of montane dry forest ecosystems, they have hardly been studied so far. Therefore, the FOCI project aims to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of Andean tropical dry forests and to understand the impact of climate change on future developments and the provision of ecosystem services to local populations at risk of poverty. FOCI is divided into three work packages, each covering specific aspects of the study. In the first step, historical changes in forest cover and distribution are analyzed using high-resolution land-use data and trends in forest migration and degradation are identified. For this purpose, the natural Andean forest stands over the last 40 years are examined and different clusters of regional growth dynamics are identified. Because the effects of climate change often occur earlier and more intensely in mountainous regions than at lower altitudes, not only regional but also altitude-related changes in particular are being investigated. The second package focuses on understanding the factors influencing the health and distribution of Andean dry forests. Since forest development is significantly influenced by human activities, the environmental, climatic and anthropogenic factors influencing dry forest development are investigated in a holistic approach. AI-supported regression analyses and the Geodetector tool are used to determine the significance of variables and spatial correlations; temporal influencing factors are analyzed and modeled using recurrent neural networks (e.g. LSTM). The third package complements this by conducting surveys in rural communities to determine the local population's understanding of the ecosystem services provided by dry forests and their perception of the effects of climate change, thus gaining insights into society's dependence on these forests. The planned methodology thus includes the use of satellite-based remote sensing, machine learning modelling and standardized surveys. This multidisciplinary approach will enable comprehensive research into development and response patterns at different spatial and temporal scales. The results will help to close research gaps and gain new insights for the protection and sustainable use of montane dry forests.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants