Kontingenzlernen und Entscheidungsverhalten bei kontextabhängigen Ergebnisstrukturen
Zusammenfassung der Projektergebnisse
The research project analysed contingency learning and inference in a decision making environment with financial rewards and penalties. Choice options and outcomes were related to a common context variable, so that the scenario allowed investigating pseudo-contingencies and cue-competition effects in decision making: While pseudo-contingencies denote inferences of distorted or real contingencies on the basis of skewed base rates and pairwise correlations of options and outcomes with a context factor, cue-competition effects reflect impaired inferences of existing contingencies due to a confounding context variable. The research programme extended the analysis of pseudo-contingencies and cue competition effects from learning and judgment tasks to the domain of choice behaviour with relevant consequences and explored moderating variables and boundary conditions. The experiments showed that pseudo-contingencies are inferred and used for decision making even if decisions have relevant consequences and if choices are voluntary and can thus be avoided. The results suggest that pseudo-contingencies are taken as subjectively valid sources of contingency information, rather than uncertain mental shortcuts. Pseudocontingency effects were more pronounced and consistent in a context with predominantly positive outcomes relative to a context with predominantly negative outcomes. Concerning moderating variables of the task setting, pseudo-contingency effects in decision making were stronger when base rate information was salient and when cognitive capacity was reduced by processing speed requirements. Concerning moderating variables on the side of the decision maker, low ability in statistical numeracy and an attentional focus on base rate information rather than co-occurrences of options with outcomes proved to enhance susceptibility to pseudo-contingencies. Over and above the test of pseudo-contingency effects in decision making, this project provided the first joint analysis of pseudo-contingencies and cuecompetition effects in the same task environment. In the cue-competition conditions, reversed blocking and overshadowing effects were observed. The unexpected findings of reversed cue-competition effects were interpreted in terms of causal belief schemes that lead to amplified contingency inferences rather than cue interference. This theoretical account was corroborated in further experiments which manipulated sensitivity to specific features of the learning environment or the causal status of the context variable and choice options. The results of this research programme highlight the importance of contingency knowledge inferred from probabilistic learning environments for decision making and biased choice behaviour. Moreover, the experiments revealed moderating variables in the environment and demonstrated the role of interindividual differences and causal belief schemes for contingency learning and decision making.
Projektbezogene Publikationen (Auswahl)
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(2011). What mediation analysis can (not) do. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 47, 1231-1236
Fiedler, K., Schott, M., & Meiser, T.
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(2017). Pseudocontingencies and choice behavior in probabilistic environments with context-dependent outcomes. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition
Meiser, T., Rummel, J., & Fleig, H.
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(2017). Statistical numeracy as a moderator of (pseudo)contingency effects on decision behavior. Acta Psychologica, 174, 68-79
Fleig, H., Meiser, T., Ettlin, F., & Rummel, J.
