Subjektive Wirklichkeit des Klimawandels - Wahrnehmung von Klimawirkung in unterschiedlichen sozialen Gruppen urbaner Räume und die quantitative Abschätzung von sozialgruppenspezifischen Adaptationsmaßnahmen
Zusammenfassung der Projektergebnisse
The study investigated the impacts of heatwaves and rainstorms on different socioeconomic groups and urban localities in New York City. The principal research methodology was Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) in which respondents are asked to report about their perceived, remembered, or experienced impacts during heatwaves and rainstorms and to relate them in a cause-effect-network (final study yielded N=762). The networks’ structure and content are subsequently analyzed with network statistics. Multivariate statistics are employed to significantly assess differences in impact and affectedness across socio-economic groups. Network scenario techniques are used to test the effect of potential adaptation options - manipulations of the networks and their effect on the steady state of the system - in reducing impacts. Results show that the location of residence in New York City, i.e. the borough, significantly explains differences in the strength of impacts during heatwaves, but not during rain. Household income significantly reduces the perceived strength of impacts for both heat waves and rainstorms. There are no significant impact differences across gender. During heat waves the largest problems occur with respect to the way of life, consumption, and social issues in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Staten Island, as well as health issues in the Bronx. During strong rainstorms the largest burdensome impact is felt in the Bronx, Manhattan, and Queens, and concerns traffic problems. In the scenario analyses, structural adaptation options in the energy, the traffic and the water supply, sewage and drainage sector were tested. During heat waves the largest reduction in impact in all boroughs would be achieved by improvements in the energy sector. These improvements would be most effective in Staten Island (SI), less in Queens (QU), the Bronx (BX), Brooklyn (BR), and Manhattan (MH). Improvements in the public transport sector would be very effective in reducing impacts in QU, BR, and MH, but not much in SI and the BX. In the latter two boroughs improvements in the water infrastructure would be more beneficial than improvements in the transport structure. The effect of adaptation options in the very same sectors would be quite different during rainstorms. In all boroughs but MH improvements in the water provision, drainage and sewage infrastructure would be most effective to reduce impacts, while in MH improvements in the public transport structure would help most. Again, SI stands out with the problems in the energy sector, being the second most beneficial adaptation options in SI during rainstorms. However, a comparison of adaptation scenarios across weather events yields that the potential effects of adaptation options are much higher during rainstorms, although the current impacts are reportedly higher for heatwaves. This shows that structural adaptation measures such as improvements in energy provision, subway and public transport services, as well as water provision, drainage and sewage can only take us so far during heatwaves. The biggest impact during heatwaves is felt on personal issues such as health and the way of life, consumption, social issues. Very different adaptation options are needed to decrease the impact and burden during heatwaves. This seriously calls for more adaptation campaigns and the investigation of other adaptation options during heat than those tested in this study. There is the potential that impacts of heatwaves are underestimated, particularly during exceptional heatwaves as current personal as well as public adaptation options are little.
Projektbezogene Publikationen (Auswahl)
- Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping: applications to urban environmental decision-making; Kap. 7, S. 148-176 in Ruth., M. (ed.): Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Environmental Studies, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, Northampton, MA, USA, 2015
Olazabal, M., Reckien, D.
- Equity and Environmental Justice in Climate Change and Cities; in Rosenzweig, Solecki, Mehrotra, Dhakal, Romero-Lankao (eds.):
Climate change and cities : second assessment report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN ARC3.2), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2018. 978-1-316-60333-8
Reckien, D., et al.
(Siehe online unter https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316563878)
