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Regionale Modellierung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Weizen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von Hitze- und Trockenstress und erhöhter CO2-Konzentration

Subject Area Plant Cultivation, Plant Nutrition, Agricultural Technology
Term from 2012 to 2016
Project identifier Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 210331701
 
Final Report Year 2018

Final Report Abstract

The project contributed to a better understanding and modeling of (i) crop responses to heat and drought, (ii) the effect of input and output data aggregation on heat and drought effects simulated at regional scale and (iii) the impact of potential adaptation measures to climate change such as changed sowing dates, cultivar change or the use of irrigation. The improved process and impact understanding was used to develop new model components which were applied to simulate effects of heat and drought on winter wheat across Germany. Gridded model input data at different aggregation levels required for these analyses were developed and made available to the research community. The key results of the project are: • The sensitivity of winter wheat yields to heat stress is lower than suggested by previous research. Effects of drought are stronger than effects of heat for the climatic conditions found in Germany. This has been confirmed for Europe very recently. • Heat and drought are closely linked due to the process of canopy cooling by transpiration. The modeling of effects of crop heat stress was considerably improved by extending crop models with components to simulate canopy temperature. • The development phase around anthesis is the phase in which wheat is most sensitive to heat for the climatic conditions found in Germany. Adaptation measures to climate change should focus on reducing the exposure to heat and drought in particular of this development phase. • The use of aggregated climate and soil input data has little effect on the mean and median of yield losses by heat and drought simulated for Germany. This suggests that results of models applied at the large scale can be considered as robust. High resolution input data are necessary to study the spatial and temporal variability of heat and drought effects, in particular for regions with heterogeneous topography. • The spatial resolution of climate input data required to constrain the error in simulated yields can be approximated by analyzing the spatial heterogeneity in topography. Further research is required to investigate the effects of increasing CO2 concentration on crop heat and drought stress and to test the effects of different model structure on simulated heat and drought effects. In addition, it needs to be tested whether the findings can be generalized across crop species or across other climatic zones.

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