Adult Age Differences in Hindsight Bias

• Applicant: Professorin Ute J. Bayen, Ph.D.
• Subject Area: General, Cognitive and Mathematical Psychology
• Term: from 2012 to 2015
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 217053377

Recollections of earlier predictions of outcomes tend to be distorted towards the actual outcome once people know about that outcome. This phenomenon, called hindsight bias, is a robust effect, yet its magnitude seems age dependent. Older adults show a stronger hindsight bias than younger adults (Bayen, Erdfelder, Bearden, & Lozito, 2006; Bernstein, Erdfelder, Meltzoff, Peria, & Loftus, 2011). The research program is aimed at investigating possible explanations for those age differences, namely inhibitory deficit, strategic differences and differences in memory. Hasher and Zacks‟ (1988) inhibitory-deficit theory of cognitive aging offers a possible explanation, as it postulates age-related deficits in inhibition on different stages of information processing. As the hindsight memory design is an interference paradigm, where irrelevant information (the solution) must be ignored, inhibition (or 2 distraction control) may influence hindsight-bias magnitude. By using eye-movement measurements, we will investigate access to the irrelevant information as well as its suppression in working memory. However, differential access to the irrelevant information might be intentional; thus, age groups may follow different strategies in completing the hindsight-bias memory task. Strategic use of the solution is therefore investigated as an alternative explanation. Age differences in memory may also play a substantial role, as lower recall ability may make older adults more prone to hindsight bias. The research program will contribute to a better understanding of cognitive processes underlying hindsight bias as well as to theories of cognitive aging.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants