New Institutionalism and Bayesian Networks: Establishing an analytical framework to model migration decision making in rural Kazakhstan
Final Report Abstract
Migration theorists call for a more comprehensive framework covering agency and surrounding structures to better explain why some people migrate while most stay put. In New Institutionalism we find a multidisciplinary theory that covers agency and structure. In the framework of this project, we use New Institutionalism in order to develop a new conceptual perspective on migration research and apply it empirically to an internal migration system in Kazakhstan. Regionally, the research focusses on the capital Astana (the centre of attraction) and the surrounding province Akmola. We uncover, first, from a conceptual perspective the extent to which structures—the political, economic and societal institutions—shape migrant agency and, second, the scope of the interrelationship between migrant agency and possible structural changes in the migration relevant institutions. We are confident that we can contribute to the theoretical discourse in migration research by developing an analytical guide that merges the three most prominent institutionalism schools, i.e., Historical Institutionalism, Sociological Institutionalism, and Rational Choice Institutionalism with a systemised institutionalist view of agency, namely collective, combative, cumulative, combinative, and constrained agency. Furthermore, other theories and statistical models can be easily associated to this New Institutionalist framework. Empirically, the migration intentions of villagers are modelled under different policy scenarios using Bayesian Networks. Furthermore, based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour, we model staying intentions with a partial least square structural equation model. Although the model focusses on staying behaviour, it accounts for the intrinsic link between staying and leaving intentions. Based on the Subjective Utility Theory, a binary logistic regression model is used to identify the rural return motives of urban university graduates who originate from the countryside. The results indicate that policies constraining urban in-migration (e.g. by limiting the available affordable housing) are attenuated by social networks and reverse remittances. The supply of accessible and appropriate information on potential income and housing costs in urban areas seems to be a more promising means of reducing rural out-migration. Rectifying false expectations may prevent potential migrants from moving and the need for reverse remittances to support unsustainable livelihoods in urban areas. Looking at the potential return to rural areas, students who study in regional towns intend to return more often than those who study in major cities. With respect to ethnic differences, non-Kazakhs have a lower migration intention than ethnic Kazakhs. Thus, this disparity may create an ethnic-urban village divide entrenching ethnic Russians in rural areas in the north. Our research reveals the existence of an interaction between staying and leaving barriers. Thus, any policy reducing rural-urban migration barriers may have a multiplier effect as people consider staying to be comparatively more difficult when leaving becomes easier. We further show that existing positive narratives of urban life weaken staying intentions. However, the strongest factor slowing rural exodus is not related to the rural economy, but to the future prospects for children, including access to high-quality educational institutions in close proximity. Better rural schools, decentralised tertiary education, and scholarship programmes for graduates can reduce the migration intentions of young villagers. Finally, we found indications that existing migration policies often discriminate against non-Kazakh ethnicities, e.g. in the urban job and housing market.
Publications
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(2016): Internal migration in Kazakhstan: Insights based on a New Institutionalism Approach. IAMO Forum ‘Rural Labour in Transition’ Halle, Germany, 2016, 22–24 June
David R., Dufhues, T., Buchenrieder, G. and Herzfeld, T.
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(2017): Internal migration in Kazakhstan: Agency and structure in the decision to stay. XXVII European Society for Rural Sociology Congress ‘Uneven processes of rural change’ Krakow, Poland, 2017, 24–27 July
David R., Dufhues, T., Buchenrieder, G. and Herzfeld, T.
