The economic integration of expellees and their effects on the West Germany economy, 1945-70

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Sebastian Braun
• Subject Area: Economic Policy, Applied Economics ; Economic and Social History
• Term: from 2015 to 2019
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 267108021

The displacement of Germans from Eastern Europe during and after World War II is one of the largest forced population movements in history. At least 12 million Germans fled or were expelled, most of them from the eastern territories of pre-war Germany. The enormous inflow of expellees (Heimatvertriebene) caused a drastic increase in the population of West Germany. By September 1950, every sixth West German resident was an expellee.Despite the historical significance of the displacement, only very few studies have so far provided econometric evidence on the economic effects of the expellees or on their economic integration in West Germany. This is surprising since, in contrast to most other episodes of forced migration, there is no lack of source data on the expellee inflow. Moreover, the specific historical circumstances under which the flight and expulsions occurred tend to simplify empirical analyses of the expellee inflow. In particular, expellees were not selected on the basis of their skills or labor market prospects. They were also very unevenly distributed across West German regions, mostly for reasons beyond their own control. The specific historical setting, therefore, allows researchers to abstract from many confounding factors that usually complicate the empirical analysis of immigration. Consequently, the displacement is not only of great historical interest but also offers an interesting setting to shed light on many fundamental questions in migration research.Against this background, the aim of this project is twofold. In a first step, the project will compile a comprehensive electronic database on the demographic characteristics and socio-economic situation of expellees in West Germany between 1945 and 1970. This database will be made available to both the scientific community and the interested public. The database will contain regional data from the West German population and occupation censuses of 1946, 1950, 1961 and 1970 and will complement the census data with a broad range of statistics from other available sources. In a second step, the project will use selected data of the new database, and exploit the specific characteristics of the immigration episode, to shed light on three unexplored questions on the expellee inflow. First, the project will analyze and quantify the medium- to long-run effects of the expellee inflow on the sectoral employment structure of West German regions. Second, the project will analyze and quantify factors that potentially accelerated or delayed the integration of expellees in the West German economy, such as differences in the economic structures of host regions or in the socio-economic characteristics of expellees. Third, the project will analyze and quantify the dynamic labor market effects of the expellee inflow.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• Co-Investigator: Professor Dr. Michael Kvasnicka
• Cooperation Partners: Professorin Dr. Nadja Dwenger; Dr. Toman Omar Mahmoud; Dr. Henning Weber