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Reasoning with conditionals in a qualitative cognitive framework

Subject Area Theoretical Philosophy
Term from 2015 to 2020
Project identifier Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 272903199
 
Final Report Year 2020

Final Report Abstract

The importance of conditional reasoning as a research topic in both philosophy and psychology has been established in the past 50 years beyond any doubt. The project investigated formal models of human reasoning with conditionals. The project's analyses were mainly based on variations and extensions of the Ramsey test for conditionals (after F. P. Ramsey 1929) against the background of a qualitative framework for belief revision. The project addressed (1) the idea of relevance in conditionals, (2) the connection between conditionals and causal statements, and (3) an inference-ticket interpretation of conditionals that elaborates on an idea of G. Ryle (1950). According to the qualitative reading of the Ramsey test, a conditional 'If A then C' is accepted in a belief state if and only if its consequent C is accepted in the (hypothetical) revision of this belief state by the antecedent A. Concerning topics (1) and (2), the analyses have been implemented using variations of this idea employing either (i) the contrast between revisions by A and revisions by not-A (the "Relevant Ramsey Test") or (ii) a hypothetical suspension of belief regarding A and C individually (the "Strengthened Ramsey Test"). The statics and dynamics of belief states were modelled on the basis of classical AGM-style belief revision, of prioritised belief bases, and of models of structural equations as they are common in the analysis of causation. Combinations of the qualitative framework with ranking-theoretic and probabilistic models of belief states were explored, and models for the learning of conditional information were proposed. In part (3) of the project, explanations for alleged anomalies of human reasoning with conditionals were offered.

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