Unravelling the Areas Prone to Large Earthquakes in the Caucasian Region (KaukasUs-R)
Final Report Abstract
The principal aim of the project KaukasUs-R was to identify the areas prone to large earthquakes in the Caucasian region and hence to contribute to assessment of seismic hazards and a mitigation of potential disasters due to large seismic events by providing a scientific advice to local authorities on improving the land use with respect to safety of infrastructure and population. This project was a joint German-Russian project with participation of scientists from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia as well as from Australia, India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, The Netherlands, and USA. The following results were obtained during the project performance: Geology, geodynamics, tectonics, seismic studies, gravity and geodesy, seismicity and seismic hazard studies in the Caucasus region have been reviewed, and the perspective in research were drawn. - The numerical tool for simulation of crust block-and-fault dynamics and earthquakes was developed, which permits nonlinear fault slip. - The block-and-fault structure of the Transcaucasian region was delineated using geological, geophysical, and geodetic data, and morphostructural zoning. - A regional BAFD model was developed using the regional block-and-fault structure, and a set of numerical experiments were performed to study occurrences of large seismic events and their reoccurrence times in the Caucasus. The model results confirmed that the contemporary crustal dynamics and seismicity pattern in Transcaucasia are determined by the north-northeastern motion of the Arabian plate relative to Eurasia and by the movement of the ductile crust underlying the rigid crustal blocks. Variations in the rheological properties of the fault zones and/or of the ductile crust influence the pattern of seismicity. The number and maximum magnitude of synthetic earthquakes change with the variations in the movements of the crustal blocks and in the rheological properties of the lower crust and the fault zones. - Numerical assessment tool for seismic hazard using instrumentally recorded, historical, and synthetic earthquakes as well as multiple-site hazard assessment were developed. - Seismic hazard of the Shillong plateau, an earthquake-prone area in the Himalayan continental collision zone, was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The project results open new perspectives for assessments of seismic hazards in Caucasus and other earthquake-prone regions as well as reassessment of the hazards in terms of nonlinear fault slip, which may influence earthquake magnitudes and the reoccurrence time of large events. The research results of this project can be used to improvement of seismic hazard (and hence risk) assessment and help in preventing earthquakes to become disasters by reducing vulnerability in the cities located in Caucasus.
Publications
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2016. On the use of multiple-site estimations in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 106(5), 2233–2243
Sokolov, V., Ismail-Zadeh, A.
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2017. Forging a paradigm shift in disaster science, Nat. Hazards, 86, 969–988
Ismail-Zadeh, A., Cutter, S.L., Takeuchi, K., Paton, D.
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2018. Earthquake hazard modelling and forecasting for disaster risk reduction. In: Vacareanu, R., Ionescu, C. (eds.), Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment, Springer Natural Hazards. Springer, Cham, pp. 3–21
Ismail-Zadeh, A.
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2018. Earthquake risk assessment for seismic safety and sustainability. In: Vacareanu, R., Ionescu, C. (eds.), Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment, Springer Natural Hazards. Springer, Cham, pp. 225–236
Ismail-Zadeh, A.
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2018. Geohazard analysis for disaster risk reduction and sustainability. In: Beer, T., Li, J., Alverson, K. (eds.) Global Change and Future Earth. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp. 349–363
Ismail-Zadeh, A.
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2018. Quantitative modeling of the lithosphere dynamics, earthquakes and seismic hazard. Tectonophysics 746, 624–647
Ismail-Zadeh, A., Soloviev, A., Sokolov, V., Vorobieva, I., Muller, B., Schilling, F.
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2018. Seismic hazard assessment of the Shillong Plateau, India, Geomatics. Natural Hazards and Risk 9(1), 841–861
Baro, O., Kumar, A., Ismail-Zadeh, A.
