Point process modelling of seismicity: deaggregation and model reduction (B04)

• Subject Area: Mathematics
• Term: since 2017
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 318763901

The proposed project aims at designing a statistical model for earthquake occurrence and the probabilistic forecast of earthquake rates. Based on the Hawkes process model GP-ETAS which was developed in the first and second funding period as well as other similar models, we will identify those components which contribute significantly to the forecast power and others which are less important in this regard. The goal of this deaggregation is the development of an optimal model with respect to forecast power that will be submitted to the international CSEP software architecture (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability), which provides community standards and protocols for comparative testing of earthquake forecasts in terms of rigorous testing procedures.

• DFG Programme: Collaborative Research Centres
• Subproject of: SFB 1294: Data Assimilation – The Seamless Integration of Data and Models
• Applicant Institution: Universität Potsdam
• Project Heads: Privatdozent Dr. Sebastian Hainzl; Professor Dr. Matthias Holschneider; Professor Dr.-Ing. Sebastian Reich, until 6/2021; Professor Dr. Gert Zöller