Sanctions Termination in Times of Crises: Unpacking the Role of External Shocks

• Applicant: Dr. Julia Grauvogel
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: from 2017 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 389266222

• Final Report Year: 2025

Final Report Abstract

The two projects have investigated the causes, processes and consequences of lifting sanctions and analyzed the extent to which these change in times of crisis, for example during pandemics. Based on original data, statistical analyses and case studies, the project has broken new scientific ground in researching how and why sanctions end and what the effects of lifting sanctions are. The project team’s conceptual work emphasizes the gradual nature and the signaling dimension of termination processes. Building on this novel understanding of sanctions removal, comprehensive data was collected. The second, updated version of the “International Sanctions Termination” dataset includes 465 US, EU, UN and regional sanctions cases from 1990 to 2021. The data highlights that sanctions are often lifted gradually and sheds light on the importance of review provisions, sunset clauses and clear objectives for termination processes. Our quantitative analysis has identified key explanatory factors for two different paths to ending sanctions: Poor economic health and high political volatility countries make target state compliance more likely whereas close political and economic ties between the sender and target states lead to a higher probability of sender capitulation. Case studies on Iran, Iraq and Zimbabwe based on interviews, archival material on the Iraqi regime and original sender documents show how divergent understandings of termination requirements complicated the process of lifting sanctions, which is often highly contested. Initial analyses of how external shocks affect sanctions termination suggest that humanitarian exemptions are more likely than the complete lifting of the measures. Preliminary results on the domestic consequences of lifting sanctions confirm that formerly sanctioned regimes can politically benefit from such a step. The project team has published its results in seven peer-reviewed articles in renowned international journals such as European Economic Review, International Studies Quarterly and the Journal of Peace Research, and in various policy briefs. In addition, a monograph is in preparation. The results were regularly discussed with policymakers in the German Federal Foreign Office and at the European level, and they were also made accessible to the public through numerous newspaper, radio and television interviews, along with podcasts and panel discussions.

Publications

• “Sanktionen als Instrument der Konfliktbearbeitung.” Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung
  Grauvogel, Julia & Christian von Soest
  
• Wie enden internationale Sanktionen?. Zeitschrift für Internationale Beziehungen, 26(2), 5-33.
  Grauvogel, Julia & Attia, Hana
  
• “Easier In Than Out: The Protracted Process of Ending Sanctions.” GIGA Focus Africa 5
  Attia, Hana & Julia Grauvogel
  
• The Design and Enforcement of Economic Sanctions. International Studies Perspectives, 21(4).
  Bapat, Navin; Early, Bryan; Grauvogel, Julia & Kleinberg, Katja
  
• The termination of international sanctions: explaining target compliance and sender capitulation. European Economic Review, 129, 103565.
  Attia, Hana; Grauvogel, Julia & von, Soest Christian
  
• „Über den (Un-)Sinn von Sanktionen.“ Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft
  Grauvogel, Julia
  
• „Über den (Un-)Sinn von Sanktionen.“ Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft
  Grauvogel, Julia
  
• “Nur Mittel zum Zweck: Erfolgsbedingungen von Sanktionen.” Friedensgutachten
  Pascal Abb, Hana Attia, Michael Brzoska, Christopher Daase, Nicole Deitelhoff, Julia Grauvogel & Anton Peez
  
• Divert when it does not hurt: The initiation of economic sanctions by US presidents from 1989 to 2015. Review of International Economics, 32(1), 109-131.
  Attia, Hana
  
• Easier In than Out: Lessons Learned from the Termination of the Iraq Sanctions Regime. Journal of Global Security Studies, 8(4).
  Grauvogel, Julia & Attia, Hana
  
• Erfolg und Grenzen der Sanktionspolitik gegen Russland.” Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte
  Grauvogel, Julia & Christian von Soest
  
• International Sanctions Termination, 1990–2018: Introducing the IST dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 60(4), 709-719.
  Attia, Hana & Grauvogel, Julia
  
• Monitoring the Monitor? Selective Responses to Human Rights Transgressions. International Studies Quarterly, 67(2).
  Attia, Hana & Grauvogel, Julia
  
• The Termination of International Sanctions. The Routledge Handbook of the Political Economy of Sanctions, 101-111. Routledge.
  Attia, Hana; Grauvogel, Julia & von, Soest Christian
  
• “Besser als ihr Ruf: Auswirkungen der Sanktionen gegen Russland.” ifo Schnelldienst
  Grauvogel, Julia