Der Einfluss individueller Erwartungen auf das Suchverhalten arbeitsloser Personen und Langzeitfolgen im Kontext aktiver Arbeitsmarktpolitik
Zusammenfassung der Projektergebnisse
Job search is a challenging process for unemployed workers, who encounter significant uncertainty about their future outcomes. So far, few studies have explored empirically how job seekers form beliefs about their labour market prospects and how beliefs affect their job search behaviour. Such knowledge is, however, important to effectively counsel and inform job seekers. Given the wide use of active labour market policies (ALMP) in modern welfare states, individuals’ expectations about program participation may be particularly relevant for the design of effective labour market policy. In this project, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the interplay between job seekers’ expectations, labour market programs, job search behaviour, and labour market outcomes. For this, we exploit a rich set of linked survey and administrative data on individuals newly entering unemployment in Germany. We first document substantial inaccuracies in job seekers’ expectations about their wages upon reemployment by comparing subjective beliefs to objective benchmarks generated from machine learning predictions. Results show that job seekers, particularly those with low objective earnings potential, display overly optimistic beliefs about their future wages. This overoptimism remains persistent throughout the unemployment spell and is connected to job seekers’ tendency to also overestimate their job finding chances. The policy implications largely depend on the source of job seekers’ overoptimism. On the one hand, information treatments may help job seekers revise their overly ambitious aspirations and thereby enhance their reemployment prospects. On the other hand, we also find evidence suggesting that overoptimism can be driven by motivated beliefs that may help job seekers maintain a positive self-image. We also study the role of individuals’ expectations for the effectiveness of labour market programs. We find that job seekers who expect to be enrolled in a training program are more positively affected by participation as they exert more effort to search for a course that matches their needs. The results indicate that counselling activities by employment agencies during the assignment process have the potential to improve program effectiveness by shaping individuals’ expectations. Moreover, we demonstrate how limited information and biased beliefs can lead to unintended consequences of labour market policies, focusing on mobility assistance programs for unemployed individuals. As intended, these programs enhance job seekers’ job search radius and increase the likelihood of accepting distant jobs. At the same, job seekers shift efforts from local to distant search, leading to a reduction in the total number of job applications with overall negative consequences for employment and earnings. Job seekers seem not sufficiently aware of spatial search frictions and overestimate the (net) returns to distance job search which gives rise to unintended effects of promoting labour mobility. We provide additional evidence on the side effects of labour market policies by studying how trainings, sanctions, and start-up subsidies can affect health outcomes and the subjective well-being of job seekers.
Projektbezogene Publikationen (Auswahl)
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Do Start-Up Subsidies for the Unemployed Affect Participants’ Well-Being? A Rigorous Look at (Un-)Intended Consequences of Labor Market Policies. Evaluation Review, 46(5), 517-554.
Caliendo, Marco & Tübbicke, Stefan
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Subjective Expectations, Perceived Incentives, and the Effectiveness of Labour Market Programs
Mahlstedt, R.
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Side effects of labor market policies*. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 125(2), 339-375.
Caliendo, Marco; Mahlstedt, Robert; van den Berg Gerard, J. & Vikström, Johan
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The Intended and Unintended Effects of Promoting Labor Market Mobility. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1-52.
Caliendo, Marco; Künn, Steffen & Mahlstedt, Robert
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The Accuracy of Job Seekers' Wage Expectations. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Caliendo, Marco; Mahlstedt, Robert; Schmeißer, Aiko & Wagner, Sophie
